WTI traded near $65.95 on Tuesday, down 0.68% on the day, after reaching a six-month high of $67.23 on Monday. Price action softened as markets weighed Middle East risks against factors that may reduce demand.<\/p>\n
US\u2013Iran tensions remained in focus, with talks due to continue this week in Geneva alongside US political and military pressure. Iran held naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, a route for roughly 20 million barrels per day, raising concern about supply disruption.<\/p>\n
The EIA expects global inventories to rise as production growth exceeds consumption. It forecasts global stockpiles will increase by an average of 3.1 million barrels per day this year, and this is above the build expected in 2025.<\/p>\n
Trade uncertainty also returned after the US administration signalled new national security tariffs following a Supreme Court decision that struck down some earlier levies. A proposed 15% global tariff was mentioned, adding to worries about global growth and energy demand.<\/p>\n
On the 4-hour chart, WTI was $65.97, above the 50- and 100-period SMAs near $64.50\u2013$64.00, and the RSI eased to 53 after being above 70. Resistance sits near $67.00, with support at $66.20\u2013$65.90, then $64.50 and $63.50.<\/p>\n
Looking back at the analysis from this time last year, we can see WTI was trading near $66 amid a debate between geopolitics and demand. Those tensions in the Middle East did provide support, helping push prices into the mid-$70s by the second half of 2025. With WTI now trading around $71 today, on February 25, 2026, it is clear that persistent supply discipline has been a more dominant factor than the demand headwinds that were feared.<\/p>\n
The significant supply glut forecasted by the EIA in early 2025 never fully came to pass. We saw OPEC+ maintain its production cuts through last year, effectively putting a floor under the market when prices dipped. The most recent data from the EIA this month confirms that U.S. crude oil inventories have actually seen a net draw of 2.1 million barrels over the past four weeks, countering expectations for builds at this time of year.<\/p>\n
Concerns about global growth that surfaced in 2025 have proven to be valid, which is what we see capping the upside for oil. For example, recent data showed that manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone contracted again in January 2026, while Chinese import growth has been flat. This creates a challenging environment where supply is tight but the appetite for consumption is not growing robustly.<\/p>\n
Given this conflict between tight supply and tepid demand, we believe the market will remain range-bound in the coming weeks. A suitable strategy would be to use options to sell volatility, such as an iron condor, centered around the current price. This would involve selling a call spread with a ceiling around $76 and a put spread with a floor around $67, allowing for profit if crude oil continues to trade within this expected range.<\/p>\n
From a technical perspective, the strong uptrend we saw in early 2025 has given way to a more sideways pattern now. The daily chart today shows the price consolidating between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling market indecision. Therefore, we should view any move towards the top of our proposed options range near $76 as an opportunity to initiate the bearish portion of the strategy.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI slipped near $65.95 as Middle East risks, rising inventories and tariff fears weighed on demand outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t