The US Dollar held firm on Friday and the DXY rose almost 1% over the week. Core PCE inflation was 3% year on year in December, while flash Q4 GDP was 1.4% versus 3% expected, leaving DXY near 97.80.<\/p>\n
Next US releases include December Factory Orders, ADP Employment Change 4-week average, the December Housing Price Index, and February Consumer Confidence. Initial Jobless Claims and the Chicago PMI are also due.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD traded near 1.1780 after the US Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs and the USD fell. Upcoming euro data includes German IFO, Italian January CPI, Germany\u2019s GDP and GfK survey, Eurozone sentiment readings, and German labour data plus Spain\u2019s flash HICP.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD was near 1.3490 after a weekly fall linked to UK jobs and inflation data that supported a BoE rate cut next month. AUD\/USD was near 0.7080, with Australia\u2019s Private Capital Expenditure due Thursday.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY was near 155.10 after paring gains; Japan releases January Large Retailer Sales, Retail Trade, and Retail Trade S.A. USD\/CAD was near 1.3690 after Canada\u2019s December Retail Sales fell 0.4% MoM versus 0.5% expected, following November\u2019s 1.2% rise; the Current Account is due Thursday.<\/p>\n
Gold traded at $5,077 after recovering most weekly losses. Scheduled speakers run from February 23 to 27 and include Lagarde, Waller, Goolsbee, Bostic, Collins, Cook, Barkin, Bullock, Bowman, Pill, and Kocher, plus Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
Other releases include NZD Retail Sales (Feb 22), Australian CPI (Feb 25), Tokyo CPI (Feb 26), and on Feb 27: Swiss Q4 GDP, Germany\u2019s flash CPI and HICP, Canada\u2019s Q4 GDP, and the US PPI.<\/p>\n
We are seeing a major conflict in the US data that creates opportunity. The rise in Core PCE inflation to 3% suggests a hawkish Federal Reserve, but the sharp drop in Q4 GDP to 1.4% signals a significant economic slowdown. This tug-of-war has the US Dollar Index stalled near 97.80, and we should prepare for a volatility breakout by positioning in options straddles.<\/p>\n
The divergence between Europe and the UK is becoming more pronounced. While the EUR\/USD is holding firm near 1.1780, bolstered by the recent Supreme Court tariff ruling, the GBP\/USD is weak at 1.3490 on expectations of a Bank of England rate cut. We saw UK growth stagnate in the final quarter of 2025, with GDP growing just 0.1%, making a BoE rate cut in March highly probable and supporting long EUR\/GBP positions.<\/p>\n
The extreme price of gold at $5,077, coupled with a strong yen that pushed USD\/JPY down to 155.10, points to significant fear in the market. This isn’t surprising, as the slowdown in US growth is spooking investors who are now seeking safety. Given the high price, we should use call spreads on gold futures to manage risk while maintaining upside exposure to this uncertainty.<\/p>\n
Commodity currencies are facing a crucial week of data. While the Aussie dollar has been resilient around 0.7080, the upcoming CPI and Capital Expenditure data will test its strength. The Canadian dollar is similarly listless near 1.3690, and the Q4 GDP release this Friday will be its most important catalyst in months.<\/p>\n
The sheer volume of central bank speakers from the Fed, ECB, and BoE next week guarantees market-moving headlines. After the Fed raised rates by only 25 basis points in their December 2025 meeting, any hints of a pause or reversal from the numerous Fed speakers will cause sharp repricing across asset classes. We should anticipate a rise in implied volatility and consider buying VIX futures as a hedge against unexpected policy shifts.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dollar steady as markets watch key US data; euro, sterling, yen mixed; gold rebounds; major releases ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16959,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42482\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16959"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}