The Euro rose against the Japanese Yen on Monday after Japan released weaker GDP data. EUR\/JPY traded near 181.76, up almost 0.20% on the day.<\/p>\n
Japan\u2019s GDP grew 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, below the 0.4% forecast, after -0.7% in the previous quarter. Annualised GDP rose 0.2% versus a 1.6% forecast, improving from -2.6% previously, while the GDP deflator eased to 3.4% YoY from 3.5%.<\/p>\n
Attention then turned to expectations for Bank of Japan policy, as slower growth reduced the case for near-term tightening. The data added pressure to the Yen.<\/p>\n
In technical trading, GBP\/JPY fell below the 50-day SMA and the 186.50\u2013182.50 range in place since mid-December. The 50-day SMA remains above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs and is still rising.<\/p>\n
Support sits near the 100-day SMA at 180.83, then 178.00 and the 200-day SMA near 175.35. Resistance includes the 50-day SMA at 183.66, then 186.00\u2013187.00, with 190.00 above.<\/p>\n
MACD is below zero with a negative histogram and the MACD line under the Signal line. RSI is near 40, below its midline and not oversold.<\/p>\n
We remember that weak Japanese GDP report back in early 2025, which reinforced the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance for the entire year. That fundamental weakness was a key signal that kept the interest rate difference with other central banks wide. This has fueled a carry trade that continues to pressure the Yen.<\/p>\n
Looking at the situation now on February 16, 2026, the EUR\/JPY has climbed to around 192.50. The European Central Bank’s main rate sits at 3.5%, while the Bank of Japan has only edged its own rate to 0.1%, maintaining a significant yield advantage for the Euro. This interest rate differential remains the dominant theme, making it expensive to bet against the pair.<\/p>\n
For the coming weeks, selling out-of-the-money puts on EUR\/JPY could be a viable strategy for traders. This approach allows us to collect premium while taking a bullish-to-neutral stance on the pair. The strategy profits if the EUR\/JPY stays above the strike price or continues its upward drift.<\/p>\n
We must remain aware of the risks, as the pair is at historically high levels. A sustained break below the 190.00 psychological level could signal a shift in momentum, making it a critical area to monitor. Any surprisingly hawkish commentary from the Bank of Japan could quickly unwind these positions.<\/p>\n
Given the long-term uptrend, volatility has been a concern, potentially inflating options premiums. Traders could consider using put credit spreads to define their risk and reduce the capital required for the position. This involves selling a higher-strike put and buying a lower-strike put to cap potential losses.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Euro gains versus yen as weak Japan GDP fuels BOJ easing bets; EUR\/JPY edges higher near 181.76.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17041,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t