{"id":41948,"date":"2026-02-16T16:14:34","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T08:14:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=41948"},"modified":"2026-02-16T16:14:34","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T08:14:34","slug":"oil-steady-as-iran-risk-premium-holds-firm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/oil-steady-as-iran-risk-premium-holds-firm\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Steady as Iran Risk Premium Holds Firm"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Oil7-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41763\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent trades flat at $67.75 while WTI edges up 0.1% to $62.44<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Large geopolitical risk premium remains due to U.S.-Iran tensions<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices were broadly unchanged in early European trade, with <strong>Brent crude at $67.75<\/strong> and <strong>WTI rising 0.1% to $62.44<\/strong>. Despite limited price movement, a sizeable geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran relations continues to underpin prices. Recent comments from President Donald Trump suggesting that regime change would be the preferred outcome in Iran have heightened concerns over potential supply disruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he told US President Trump that any US deal with Iran must include the dismantling of Iran&#39;s nuclear infrastructure, not just stopping the enrichment process <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pR8lS3h4XO\">https:\/\/t.co\/pR8lS3h4XO<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/RcDy2H8AOu\">pic.twitter.com\/RcDy2H8AOu<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2023190589295202564?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 16, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>These remarks reinforce fears that tensions could escalate, keeping traders cautious about aggressively selling crude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, markets are <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7CHcw3BOo0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">monitoring diplomatic signals<\/a> from Eastern Europe. Peace discussions between Ukraine and Russia have taken a more de-escalatory tone, which could gradually remove part of oil\u2019s geopolitical premium if sustained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Risk Premium Versus Fundamentals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts highlight that a large geopolitical premium remains in prices due to Middle East uncertainty. If tensions ease meaningfully, the focus may shift back to underlying supply-demand dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent data points to softer fundamentals. Inventory builds and steady non-OPEC supply growth suggest that global supply remains comfortable. Should the geopolitical premium fade, these bearish elements could exert renewed downward pressure on crude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Exclusive: OPEC+ leans towards resumption in oil output increases from April, sources say <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Onl4WXgi2n\">https:\/\/t.co\/Onl4WXgi2n<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Onl4WXgi2n\">https:\/\/t.co\/Onl4WXgi2n<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2022423084087615838?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 13, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At present, the market is balancing two competing narratives: potential disruption from Iran versus a stabilising global supply outlook. This tug-of-war has kept prices rangebound rather than trending decisively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI crude oil (CL-OIL) is trading at <strong>$62.64<\/strong>, marginally lower on the session, as price continues to consolidate after failing to sustain momentum above the recent swing high at <strong>$66.47<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The daily chart shows a recovery structure from the <strong>$54.87<\/strong> low, but upside pressure has clearly stalled near the mid-$60s region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Price is now hovering just below the <strong>5-day MA (63.41)<\/strong> and <strong>10-day MA (63.64)<\/strong>, while holding slightly under the <strong>20-day MA (62.89)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/WhatsApp-Image-2026-02-16-at-155707-1024x474.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-42548\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This clustering of short-term moving averages signals a loss of bullish momentum and suggests the market is entering a corrective phase rather than extending the prior rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>30-day MA (61.58)<\/strong> remains upward sloping, offering dynamic support near the $61.50\u2013$60.70 zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If crude holds above $60.70, the broader recovery bias from early January remains intact, with a potential retest of $64.00\u2013$66.00 on renewed buying interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, a decisive break below $60.50 would likely shift momentum back in favour of sellers, exposing the $57.30 region and potentially reopening the path toward the December lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short term, oil may continue to trade sideways as traders assess geopolitical headlines. If rhetoric around Iran intensifies or diplomatic efforts stall, the risk premium could widen and lift Brent back toward the <strong>$68\u2013$70<\/strong> range and WTI toward <strong>$64\u2013$66<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, sustained progress in Ukraine-Russia talks combined with calmer messaging around Iran could allow supply fundamentals to dominate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In that scenario, WTI may drift toward <strong>$60\u2013$61<\/strong>, particularly if inventory data reinforces surplus conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, price action suggests consolidation, with geopolitical headlines likely to dictate the next directional move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/energies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Energies<\/a> on VT Markets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/Insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brent near $67.75 and WTI at $62.44 as Iran tensions support prices, but softer fundamentals cap gains. | VT Markets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41763,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[5,66],"class_list":["post-41948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41948"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41948\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}