The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an intraday record of 50,509.22 and closed at 50,259.81, up 123.57 points (0.25%). The S&P 500 rose 0.47% to 6,964.82 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.90% to 23,238.67.<\/p>\n
December retail sales were unchanged month on month at $735 billion, after a 0.6% rise in November and below a 0.4% forecast. Sales excluding autos were also flat versus a 0.3% forecast, and the control group fell 0.1%.<\/p>\n
Furniture stores and miscellaneous retailers each dropped 0.9%, while auto dealers slipped 0.2%. The Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% in Q4, below 0.8% and the slowest since Q3 2020.<\/p>\n
Howard Lutnick repeated projections of 5%+ GDP growth in Q1 2026 and said 6% is possible if rates fall. He cited over 30 projects and $18 trillion in pledged investment; Scott Bessent put growth at 4\u20135%, while the IMF forecast 2.1% for the year.<\/p>\n
Datadog rose 15% and ServiceNow gained 4%. Spotify jumped over 16% after adding 38 million users to reach 751 million versus 745 million expected; S&P Global fell about 16% on 2026 EPS guidance of $19.40\u2013$19.65 versus $19.96, and Coca-Cola fell over 4% on 2026 organic sales guidance of 4\u20135%.<\/p>\n
TSMC posted January revenue of NT$401.26 billion ($12.71 billion), up 36.8% year on year and 19.8% month on month. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom each rose about 1%, while Disney rose over 2.5%.<\/p>\n
The Dow\u2019s 50-day EMA is 48,744 and its 200-day EMA is 46,314. Stochastics are 77.96\/64.48, with support at 50,000 and 49,600, and resistance near 50,500.<\/p>\n
The market is sending conflicting signals that we must navigate carefully. While the Dow Jones trades at record highs above 50,000, the surprise weakness in December 2025’s retail sales and employment costs suggests the consumer foundation is cracking. This presents an ideal time to protect profits by purchasing put options on broad market ETFs like DIA or SPY as a hedge against a potential correction.<\/p>\n
The weak economic data has dramatically increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates a nearly 80% probability of three or more rate cuts in 2026, a situation reminiscent of the market’s dovish pivot we saw back in late 2023. We should consider buying call options on long-duration treasury bond ETFs, such as TLT, to profit from the potential fall in yields as rate cut bets solidify.<\/p>\n
A significant gap exists between the Commerce Secretary’s bullish 5-6% GDP growth forecast and the IMF’s more sober 2.1% projection. This wide divergence in outlooks is a recipe for increased market volatility in the coming weeks as new data arrives. Buying VIX call options or index straddles could be an effective way to position for the inevitable price swings this uncertainty will create.<\/p>\n
The market is no longer a monolith where everything rises together. Strong earnings from software and record revenue from TSM show the AI-driven semiconductor sector still has momentum, while weak guidance from staples like Coca-Cola and financials like S&P Global signal trouble elsewhere. We can exploit this by establishing pairs trades, such as buying calls on the SOXX semiconductor ETF while simultaneously buying puts on the XLP consumer staples ETF.<\/p>\n
Technically, the Dow is extended and the Stochastic oscillator is signaling overbought conditions, reinforcing the case for near-term caution. The 50,000 level represents a critical psychological support zone that will likely be tested soon. Given this setup, structuring these derivative positions now, while the index is still near its highs, is prudent before any consolidation or pullback gathers steam.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Stocks hit records as retail sales stalled; tech surged on earnings; TSMC revenue jumped; Dow held key support levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16988,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41504"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41504\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16988"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41504"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}