The Riksbank has decided to maintain its policy rate at 1.75%, citing economic growth and an upturn in household consumption. Inflation meeting target levels allows them to adopt a careful approach, even with a weak labour market.<\/p>\n
The central bank remains alert to economic developments and signals readiness to adjust policy if necessary. With no drastic external shocks anticipated, the policy rate is expected to stay unchanged for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n
Back in 2025, we saw the Riksbank holding its policy rate steady at 1.75%, adopting a vigilant wait-and-see approach. That stability was based on solid growth and inflation hitting its target, even as the labor market showed weakness. The outlook has since shifted significantly, making that cautious stance seem like a distant memory.<\/p>\n
The “ricochet” the bank hoped to avoid appears to have been a domestic slowdown, as recent data from Statistics Sweden shows inflation has now dipped to 1.4% year-over-year. This is well below the 2.0% target we were accustomed to in 2025. Furthermore, unemployment has crept up to 8.5%, confirming the labor market weakness hinted at last year was a more serious trend.<\/p>\n
As a result of this downturn, the Riksbank was forced to abandon its holding pattern, cutting the policy rate twice in late 2025 to its current 1.25%. This response became necessary after Q4 2025 GDP growth came in at a disappointing 0.1%. The bank’s vigilance has now fully transformed into active easing.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this means the low-volatility environment of mid-2025, which favored selling options on the SEK, is over. With the central bank in an easing cycle, implied volatility on SEK currency pairs has risen from last year’s lows. We are seeing a notable increase in demand for call options on EUR\/SEK, with traders positioning for further Krona weakness.<\/p>\n
Given the clear dovish pivot, strategies should now focus on continued SEK depreciation and the potential for more rate cuts. Forward rate agreements are now pricing in at least one more 25 basis point cut before the third quarter of 2026. This suggests that positioning for a lower policy rate through interest rate swaps or futures remains a viable trade.<\/p>\n
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