Brent Crude Oil Rise In January 2026<\/p>\n
Additionally, a decline in the U.S. Dollar index by 1.4% during January coincided with the surge in oil prices. This included the most considerable 4-day decrease since a previous economic turmoil in April.<\/p>\n
Following the 16.2% surge in Brent crude last month, we see continued upward pressure on prices. The significant geopolitical risk premium now baked into the market is unlikely to fade in the coming weeks. We anticipate that any further escalation in rhetoric or action concerning Iran will push prices firmly past the $70\/bbl mark.<\/p>\n
This environment is ripe for higher volatility, and traders should position accordingly. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has already jumped to levels near 45, its highest point since the supply scares we saw in the third quarter of 2025. Buying options, such as straddles or strangles, could be an effective strategy to profit from large price swings in either direction, regardless of the ultimate outcome of current tensions.<\/p>\n
For those with a clear directional view, buying out-of-the-money call options offers a leveraged bet on further price increases. Given the sharp rise in January, March and April contracts with strike prices of $75 and $80 now appear increasingly plausible targets. These positions would directly benefit from a conflict-driven supply disruption, however small.<\/p>\n
Geopolitical Events Impacting Prices<\/p>\n
We are seeing a pattern similar to the one from late 2021 to early 2022, when geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine caused Brent to surge over 30% in just a couple of months. Looking back, we also recall the September 2019 attacks on Saudi facilities, which caused a record 15% single-day price jump. These historical precedents show how quickly geopolitical events can reprice the entire energy market.<\/p>\n
To manage costs and risk in this volatile market, traders could consider bull call spreads. By purchasing a call at a lower strike price and simultaneously selling another at a higher strike, the initial premium paid is reduced significantly. This strategy caps the potential upside but provides a more conservative way to profit if prices continue their steady climb.<\/p>\n
The concurrent weakness in the US dollar is providing an additional tailwind for crude prices. The dollar index has continued to slip in the first days of February, making oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies and thus supporting global demand. As long as this inverse correlation holds, a weak dollar will amplify any supply-side price shocks.<\/p>\n
Moving forward, we are closely monitoring naval traffic reports from the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for nearly 20% of global oil transit. Any disruption there would have an immediate and dramatic impact on prices. Traders should also pay keen attention to the weekly EIA inventory reports for any unexpected draws that could signal a tightening physical market.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent Crude spiked 16.2% in January 2026 amid geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40707"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40707\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}