Australia’s TD-MI inflation gauge increased to 3.6% in January from a previous 3.5%. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to keep oil output unchanged for March, and BOJ members anticipate further rate hikes if outlooks are realised.<\/p>\n
The EUR\/USD pair hit a multi-year high of 1.2082 before retreating to the 1.1900 level. The US Dollar weakened initially due to speculation of US intervention in the Japanese Yen.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD rose to a four-year high above 1.3850, driven by US Dollar selling and a technical Golden Cross indicating further potential gains. Gold prices fell to approximately $4,780 amid signs of US political stability as traders await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.<\/p>\n
Global central banks have mainly kept policy rates unchanged, while the Eurozone’s strong GDP growth supports the ECB’s decision to maintain rates. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple experienced corrections with weekly losses of around 6%, 3%, and 5%.<\/p>\n
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a downward trend with Bitcoin approaching November lows at $80,000, and Ethereum falling below $2,800. The next week’s markets will be influenced by potential Fed nominations and central bank meetings, with a possibility of surprises.<\/p>\n
The immediate focus is the reinvigorated US Dollar, which we see continuing its rally. A potential hawk leading the Fed suggests higher interest rates are coming, a move that typically strengthens the dollar. This reminds us of the last major tightening cycle in 2022 when the Dollar Index (DXY) surged over 15% to two-decade highs.<\/p>\n
For gold traders, this means exercising extreme caution after the retreat from the $4,800 peak. As the dollar strengthens and real yields are expected to rise, the appeal of non-yielding gold diminishes significantly. We believe put options or short futures positions on XAU\/USD offer a way to hedge against or profit from a further correction toward the $4,500 level.<\/p>\n
The EUR\/USD has shown its hand by failing to hold gains above the 1.20 level, signaling a powerful reversal. This creates a clear opportunity, as the policy paths between a hawkish Fed and a steady European Central Bank diverge. The economic slowdown we observed back in late 2023, where Eurozone GDP stagnated at 0.0% growth, seems to be a persistent theme creating a headwind for the euro.<\/p>\n
Conversely, the British Pound is showing relative strength, but this creates a volatile trading environment against the strong dollar. The “Golden Cross” on GBP\/USD is technically bullish, but it’s fighting the fundamental tide of dollar dominance. We anticipate significant price swings around the upcoming Bank of England meeting, making options strategies that profit from volatility, like straddles, more appealing than outright directional bets.<\/p>\n
The Australian Dollar is likely to face downward pressure despite the slight uptick in domestic inflation to 3.6%. The RBA is unlikely to match the Fed’s potential aggression, and a strong US dollar typically weighs on commodity currencies. This divergence in central bank policy will likely push the AUD\/USD pair lower in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" TD-MI inflation ticks up, oil output steady, dollar weakens, crypto declines; central banks eye rate paths.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17028,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40614\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}