WTI has recently moved higher due to declining Russian fuel oil exports and supply disruptions in key US regions. Russian shipments to Asia reached approximately 1.2 million tons in January, marking a third monthly decline.<\/p>\n
Middle East tensions linger as the US deploys a carrier strike group amid increasing Iran tensions. Reduced Venezuelan shipments to China, following US actions against President Maduro, may further tighten Asia’s high-sulphur fuel oil supply.<\/p>\n
Oil prices were buoyed by US production disruptions and geopolitical risks, despite expectations of oversupply in 2026. The US deploying an aircraft carrier to the Middle East raises concerns about potential energy flow disruptions.<\/p>\n
Trade tensions persisted with US President Trump’s tariff threats on Canada over deals with China, though Canada has no plans for such agreements. Canadian tariffs were only lowered in select sectors.<\/p>\n
WTI oil is a high-quality crude sourced from the US and plays a key role in global oil pricing. Supply and demand, political factors, and OPEC decisions critically influence WTI prices. Weekly oil inventory reports also shape price dynamics, with API and EIA data indicating supply-demand trends. OPEC’s production quotas can significantly impact WTI oil prices.<\/p>\n
We are seeing WTI hold strong, a situation similar to what we observed back in early 2025. The supply concerns from that period, including disruptions in Russia and key US regions, continue to shape the market’s bullish sentiment today. This creates a familiar foundation for our current trading strategies as we enter February 2026.<\/p>\n
The slowdown in Russian exports, a trend that began in late 2024 and continued through 2025, remains a significant factor for the market. Following further drone attacks this month, recent industry reports now estimate that Russia’s crude processing has fallen to an 11-month low, taking over 350,000 barrels per day of refining capacity offline. This continued pressure on Russian supply is tightening the global market for refined products.<\/p>\n
In the United States, we are once again seeing production hits, echoing the disruptions of last year. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed a crude inventory draw of 4.2 million barrels last week, far exceeding analyst expectations of a 1.5 million barrel draw. This suggests that recent winter storms in the Bakken formation are having a greater impact on supply than initially anticipated.<\/p>\n
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have also intensified since the US carrier group deployment we watched in 2025. Tensions with Iran have escalated again, with recent naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz adding a significant risk premium back into the price. Traders are closely watching this chokepoint, as any disruption could immediately impact global energy flows.<\/p>\n
On the demand side, we are seeing stronger signals than we did this time last year. China’s latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI, released just last week, unexpectedly rose to 51.1, indicating expansion in factory activity for the third consecutive month. This points to a potential increase in energy consumption from the world’s largest oil importer.<\/p>\n
Given these sustained supply issues and firming demand indicators, the path of least resistance for oil prices appears to be upward. We believe that buying call options to capture upside potential or establishing long futures positions could be favorable in the coming weeks. Traders should remain alert to weekly US inventory data and any new developments out of the Middle East.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI rises amid Russian export declines, US disruptions, and geopolitical tensions tightening global fuel oil supply chains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40116\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}