{"id":39845,"date":"2026-03-06T18:50:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T18:50:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/americas-february-monthly-average-hourly-earnings-rose-0-4-exceeding-the-0-3-forecast-estimate\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T18:50:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T18:50:38","slug":"americas-february-monthly-average-hourly-earnings-rose-0-4-exceeding-the-0-3-forecast-estimate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/live-updates\/americas-february-monthly-average-hourly-earnings-rose-0-4-exceeding-the-0-3-forecast-estimate\/","title":{"rendered":"America\u2019s February monthly average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, exceeding the 0.3% forecast estimate"},"content":{"rendered":"US average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month on month in February. The forecast was 0.3%.\n\nThe outturn was 0.1 percentage points higher than expected. This points to faster wage growth than forecast for the month.\n\n<h3>Implications For Fed Policy<\/h3>\nThis stronger-than-expected wage growth of 0.4% suggests inflation remains persistent. This makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify cutting interest rates in the near term. We should now anticipate a more cautious or &#8220;hawkish&#8221; tone from the central bank in its upcoming statements.\n\nIn response, we are watching interest rate futures closely, as the market is pricing out the probability of a rate cut in the second quarter. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates only a 35% chance of a cut by the June meeting, down from over 70% just a month ago. This means options strategies that profit from rates staying higher for longer are becoming more attractive.\n\nFor equity markets, this data is a headwind, particularly for growth and technology stocks that are sensitive to borrowing costs. We are considering purchasing put options on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to hedge against a potential downturn in the coming weeks. Implied volatility may increase, making long positions on the VIX a viable short-term play.\n\nThis wage report is especially significant because last month\u2019s core Consumer Price Index reading was a stubborn 3.1%, well above the Fed&#8217;s 2% target. Another high inflation print next week would almost certainly remove a mid-year rate cut from consideration. The market is very sensitive to this cumulative evidence of sticky inflation.\n\nLooking back, this situation is reminiscent of the market environment in the fall of 2025. A series of hot economic reports back then forced a repricing of rate expectations, leading to a temporary drop in equity indices. We must be prepared for a similar pattern of volatility if the upcoming data confirms this trend.\n\n<h3>Potential Dollar Strength<\/h3>\nConsequently, the U.S. dollar is poised to show strength against other major currencies. A Federal Reserve that is holding rates steady while other central banks consider easing creates a favorable differential for the dollar. We are therefore looking at call options on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) as a way to position for this divergence.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in February, beating forecasts of 0.3% and signalling faster wage growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39845","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39845","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39845"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39845\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39845"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39845"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39845"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}