{"id":39487,"date":"2026-03-03T10:36:26","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T10:36:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/wti-futures-climb-2-3-to-nearly-73-after-strait-of-hormuz-closure-sparks-supply-disruption-concerns\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T10:36:26","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T10:36:26","slug":"wti-futures-climb-2-3-to-nearly-73-after-strait-of-hormuz-closure-sparks-supply-disruption-concerns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/live-updates\/wti-futures-climb-2-3-to-nearly-73-after-strait-of-hormuz-closure-sparks-supply-disruption-concerns\/","title":{"rendered":"WTI futures climb 2.3% to nearly $73 after Strait of Hormuz closure sparks supply disruption concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"WTI futures on NYMEX rose 2.3% to near $73.00 in early European trading on Tuesday. The move followed reports that the Strait of Hormuz was closed, a route used for 20% of global crude oil shipments.\n\nReuters reported that, late Monday, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard statement said ships attempting to pass would be fired upon. Iran has increased military activity near the strait amid conflict involving the US and Israel.\n\n

Geopolitical Risk Premium Impact<\/h3>\nUS forces said they destroyed command posts of Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guards, plus Iranian air defence and missile launch sites. The reports said this reduced Tehran\u2019s ability to carry out attacks.\n\nUS interest-rate expectations also shifted after data on factory-level inflation. The CME FedWatch tool put the probability of rates being held steady in June at 53.5%, up from 42.7% on Friday.\n\nThe ISM Manufacturing PMI report showed the Prices Paid sub-index rose to 70.5. This compared with estimates of 59.5 and a previous reading of 59.0.\n\nWTI is a US-sourced crude benchmark distributed via the Cushing hub. Its price is driven by supply and demand, global growth, political events, OPEC decisions, the US Dollar, and weekly inventory data from the API and EIA, which are usually within 1% of each other 75% of the time.\n\n

Market Positioning And Inventory Risk<\/h3>\nWhen we look back at the 2025 crisis, the surge in WTI to near $73 following the Strait of Hormuz closure established a new psychological floor for the market. That event introduced a significant geopolitical risk premium that we see has persisted into today’s trading. The memory of that supply shock means that traders are now quicker to react to any tensions in the Middle East.\n\nEven with the strait long reopened, volatility remains elevated, which is a direct consequence of the 2025 incident. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) is currently trading around 38, which is noticeably higher than the averages we saw prior to the 2025 conflict. This suggests that the options market is still pricing in a high probability of sudden price swings.\n\nIn response to last year’s price instability, we have seen a significant ramp-up in non-OPEC production, particularly from the United States. The most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows U.S. crude output has now climbed to a record 13.5 million barrels per day. This increased supply provides a crucial buffer that helps to cap the upside potential of oil prices during minor disruptions.\n\nSimultaneously, the demand side of the equation remains constrained by the monetary policy decisions made in the wake of the 2025 inflation spike. The Federal Reserve, having been forced to hold rates higher for longer throughout last year, is keeping global economic growth in check. We see this reflected in recent global manufacturing PMI figures, which have been hovering just above the 50-point mark, indicating only modest expansion.\n\nFor derivative traders, this environment points towards strategies that benefit from a range-bound, yet volatile, market. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads with strike prices above $85 per barrel could be a prudent approach to capitalize on the production cap. This allows traders to collect premium while betting that strong U.S. supply and cautious Fed policy will prevent a runaway price scenario like the one we briefly saw in 2025.\n\nGiven the market’s heightened sensitivity, we must place an even greater emphasis on weekly EIA inventory reports. An unexpected large draw in inventories could easily trigger a sharp rally, testing the upper limits of the current range. Therefore, holding positions through these Wednesday reports carries significantly more risk than it did before the 2025 disruption.\n\nCreate your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n

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WTI rises to $73 after Strait of Hormuz closure fears; Iran threats and US strikes intensify tensions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t