Gold registered a decrease of over 0.70% as traders engaged in profit-taking, with data revealing a stronger than anticipated US labour market. The doubts over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts led to gold trading at $4,580.<\/p>\n
Gold faced pressure from resilient US data and reduced geopolitical risks, which prompted traders to reassess aggressive Federal Reserve easing expectations. US President Donald Trump’s uncertainty over nominating Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair also influenced market mood, impacting gold and the US Dollar.<\/p>\n
Kevin Warsh is now considered a likely candidate for Fed Chair, with his probability rising from around 40% to 60%. Geopolitical tensions eased between the US and Iran, although military action remains a possibility if Iran resumes specific activities. US Industrial Production exceeded predictions, rising 0.4% instead of the anticipated 0.1% decline.<\/p>\n
Upcoming US data will include housing data, jobless claims, and the final GDP reading for Q3 2025. Inflation readings remain mixed, with steady CPI but rising PPI, along with a robust labour market indicated by reduced jobless claims. Traders adjusted expectations for future Federal Reserve actions, anticipating 43 basis points of easing by late 2026.<\/p>\n
Gold’s price dipped below $4,600, with potential resistance at $4,550. Several factors influence gold price trends, including inflation expectations, interest rates, and US Dollar strength. Central banks, particularly from emerging markets, continue to increase gold reserves, supporting economic stability.<\/p>\n
We’ve seen gold slide as the market reprices Federal Reserve expectations. Looking back at late 2025, strong labor and production data created doubt about the aggressive easing cycle we once anticipated. As of this week, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates traders are now pricing in just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, a significant shift from the two cuts expected just a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n
The strength in the US Dollar and Treasury yields is a major headwind for us. The 10-year yield is holding firm above 4.2%, putting pressure on non-yielding gold, a dynamic similar to what we observed in early 2024 when rate cut expectations were also pushed back. This is fueled by uncertainty over the next Fed Chair, with the market increasingly viewing the frontrunner, Kevin Warsh, as a more hawkish choice which could keep rates higher for longer.<\/p>\n
With the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, Core PCE, due next week, we should be prepared for a spike in volatility. The Cboe Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) is already up 5% this past week, signaling that options markets are pricing in a significant move. Any inflation reading that deviates from expectations could easily push gold through key technical levels.<\/p>\n
From a technical standpoint, the immediate battle is around the $4,550 level. The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows that large speculators have trimmed their net long positions, confirming the profit-taking we’ve felt in the market. A decisive break below the January 8th low of $4,407 could trigger a larger wave of selling toward the $4,300s.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold dipped below $4,600 as strong US data and easing geopolitical risks pressured prices and rate expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16981,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39428","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39428"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39428\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39428"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39428"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39428"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}