China’s Record Oil Imports<\/p>\n
China’s imports of crude oil reached a record peak in December and throughout 2025. This rise was driven by increased refinery activity and stockpiling efforts. In December, China imported 56 million tons, equating to 13.2 million barrels per day. This figure is 17% higher than the previous year and 6.4% above the previous month.<\/p>\n
For the entirety of 2025, imports hit a historic high of 579 million tons, or 11.6 million barrels per day. This marked an increase of 4.6% compared to the previous year. The growth in crude oil processing in China was a contributing factor, having risen by 4% within eleven months compared to the same timeframe last year. Data for December’s processing rates are to be released shortly.<\/p>\n
Additionally, China has been boosting its strategic reserves. During the first eleven months of 2025, the country imported approximately 46 million tons, or 1 million barrels per day, beyond what domestic refineries processed. This strategic stockpiling helped absorb last year’s oversupply and averted a steeper drop in oil prices.<\/p>\n
We saw China import a record-breaking 13.2 million barrels per day in December 2025, a move that provided significant support for oil prices late last year. This demand absorbed a large portion of the global oversupply and prevented a sharper price decline. The main question for us now is whether this aggressive buying will continue into the first quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n
China’s Refinery Processing<\/p>\n
This buying wasn’t just for storage, as refinery processing in China also rose throughout 2025. Looking at recent economic data, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.8, indicating slight expansion which may support steady demand. This suggests a fundamental strength that could keep crude consumption firm in the near term.<\/p>\n
However, we must consider that a large part of the 2025 buying, roughly 1 million barrels per day, was specifically for building strategic reserves. Historically, once these stockpiling goals are reached, that source of demand can disappear abruptly. A sudden halt to this reserve-filling would reintroduce oversupply pressure on the market very quickly.<\/p>\n
This uncertainty from the demand side is happening while OPEC+ holds its production cuts steady, which is keeping WTI crude prices hovering around $85 per barrel. The cartel’s supply discipline is currently balancing the market, but it could be severely tested if China’s import appetite wanes. Traders should therefore watch weekly import and inventory data from China with extreme care.<\/p>\n
Given the opposing risks of sustained high demand versus a sudden drop-off in stockpiling, implied volatility in near-term crude options has ticked higher. This environment suggests that strategies built around price movement itself, rather than a firm directional bias, could be advantageous. The market is priced for a significant move, and options on WTI and Brent for February and March delivery reflect this tension.<\/p>\n
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