China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI reached 50.1 in December, exceeding forecasts which predicted a value of 49.2. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also increased to 50.2, illustrating modest growth within the sectors. <\/p>\n
The NZD\/USD exchange rate remained below 0.5800 despite the positive Chinese PMI data. Likewise, the Australian Dollar held its position following the NBS report. <\/p>\n
Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China set the USD\/CNY reference rate at 7.0288, slightly lower than the previous rate of 7.0348. The GBP\/USD remained stable above 1.3450 amid low trading volume. <\/p>\n
In broader markets, the EUR\/USD dipped below 1.1750 after the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes release. Market trading volumes are thin due to the impending New Year holidays. <\/p>\n
In commodities, gold attempted another climb towards $4,400 in Asian trading, buoyed by the positive Chinese PMI data. Trading sessions showed minimal movement, with indexes such as the S&P 500 remaining stagnant. <\/p>\n
Looking ahead to 2026, expectations are for solid economic performance, driven by ongoing supportive factors from 2025. The crypto market outlook indicates volatility, influenced by regulatory changes and technological adoption.<\/p>\n
The surprise uptick in China’s manufacturing PMI to 50.1 is a key signal as we head into January. This figure, while barely in expansion territory, breaks a trend of weaker data we saw through the third quarter of 2025. We should consider that China consumes over 50% of the world’s refined copper, so this news could ignite a rally in industrial metals that have been stagnant.<\/p>\n
The Australian dollar, a key proxy for Chinese economic health, has been under pressure for weeks. This positive data provides a reason to look at call options on the AUD\/USD, betting on a reversal in early 2026. This is especially true given the thin holiday markets where a new narrative can take hold quickly.<\/p>\n
Gold\u2019s push toward $4,400 seems to be partly driven by this China news, suggesting a focus on industrial demand. However, if this data signals a broader ‘risk-on’ sentiment for 2026, gold’s appeal as a safe haven could diminish. We see this as a potential opportunity to buy puts, betting that the price is overextended compared to its historical relationship with real interest rates.<\/p>\n
Trading volumes are understandably low, but that means unexpected news can cause outsized moves. Implied volatility on China-related assets, like options on the FXI ETF, may be underpriced heading into the first full week of trading. Looking back at early January of 2023, we saw how quickly sentiment could shift after the new year, leading to sharp price adjustments.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" China\u2019s PMI data shows modest growth; markets steady amid thin trading and New Year holiday expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16963,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37972"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37972\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}