Bloomin\u2019 Brands, Inc. (BLMN) is notably involved in the casual dining industry, owning prominent chains such as Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba\u2019s Italian Grill. Despite steady revenue, BLMN’s stock performance has declined by over 25% since August, driven by reduced margins and slower customer traffic, compounded by a downward revision of annual earnings projections. <\/p>\n
On December 11th, 2025, BLMN broke above a long-standing declining trendline originating in November 2024, a technical event suggesting potential recovery. The stock is currently retesting this trendline, though caution is advised due to potential year-end tax-loss selling that may impede progress. <\/p>\n
Key technical levels include $6.21 and a November low of $5.90, both critical for potential reversals. Resistance levels are set at $7.86 and $8.50, which, if surpassed, could facilitate a rally towards $11.00. The stock’s 45% decline over the year positions it for a possible strong rally if current trends support recovery.<\/p>\n
Given the technical re-test of the broken trendline, we should consider January call options as a way to play a potential relief rally. The stock is deeply oversold, and this setup offers a defined entry point for a bullish position with leverage. With the stock currently trading near its lows, options premiums can offer an attractive risk-to-reward scenario for a sharp bounce.<\/p>\n
We’ve seen a notable increase in open interest for the January and February call options, especially around the $7.50 and $8.00 strike prices over the last week. This suggests that other traders are positioning for a move higher after the new year begins. Implied volatility has also started to decrease from its recent highs, which could make buying these calls a bit cheaper than it was a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n
This trade aligns with recent economic data, as the latest report on consumer spending from earlier this month showed that spending in the casual dining sector was surprisingly resilient, down only 0.5% versus the 2% decline that was expected. We’ve also noted that wholesale food prices, particularly for beef, have seen a 3% decline since their peak in October 2025, which could help ease the margin pressures that have weighed on the stock. This provides a fundamental reason to believe a turnaround could be forming.<\/p>\n
The primary risk is a failure at this re-test, so we must watch the $6.21 and $5.90 support levels closely. A break below the November low of $5.90 would invalidate the bullish setup and could be a trigger to purchase puts or close any long positions. We should use these levels as clear guides for our stop-losses on any bullish derivative plays.<\/p>\n
We saw a similar pattern across the restaurant industry following the downturn in 2022, where beaten-down stocks that survived tax-loss selling in December experienced strong rallies in the first quarter of the following year. Once the artificial selling pressure from tax-loss harvesting lifts in January, a technical setup like this has a much higher chance of succeeding.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BLMN breaks trendline, signaling potential recovery; key levels at $6.21 and $7.86 may drive rebound.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37762","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37762"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37762\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}