EUR\/JPY shows slight increases around 182.75 in the early part of the European session. The pair maintains a positive outlook supported by strong RSI momentum, with resistance at 182.82 and initial support at 181.18. The Japanese Yen’s value diminishes against the Euro due to concerns over Japan’s fiscal condition, linked to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending and economic growth issues. <\/p>\n
The Bank of Japan’s upcoming interest rate decision may influence the Yen. Rising expectations for a rate hike could strengthen the JPY, posing a challenge for the EUR\/JPY cross. A Reuters poll shows that 90% of economists predict a rate increase to 0.75% from 0.50% at the BoJ’s December meeting, up from 53% last month. In the daily chart, the pair trades above the 100-day EMA at 175.89, supporting the ongoing uptrend despite the overbought RSI at 68.85. <\/p>\n
The price is near the upper Bollinger Band at 182.82, suggesting bullish pressure, while narrowing bands indicate possible directional change. A pullback could head toward 181.18, with further support at 179.53. Closing above the upper band may lead to new highs.<\/p>\n
We see the EUR\/JPY pair showing strength, pushing towards the 182.82 resistance level ahead of the weekend. While the bullish trend seems intact, the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting next week is causing significant tension in the market. This creates a classic conflict between current momentum and a major fundamental risk event.<\/p>\n
The market is pricing in a high probability of a rate hike, with consensus estimates pointing to a move from 0.50% to 0.75%. This speculation has been fueled by Japan’s latest core CPI data for November, which registered a stubborn 2.9%, remaining well above the central bank’s target. We remember the sharp JPY appreciation after the BoJ’s first hike back in March 2024, creating a clear precedent.<\/p>\n
On the Euro side of the equation, the European Central Bank’s recent dovish pivot adds another layer of complexity for the pair. With the ECB having delivered two rate cuts in the second half of 2025 to combat slowing growth, the monetary policy divergence is now clearly favoring the Yen. This fundamental pressure could cap any further upside for EUR\/JPY, regardless of the current technical strength.<\/p>\n
Given the binary nature of the upcoming BoJ decision, traders should consider strategies that benefit from a large price move in either direction. One-week implied volatility for EUR\/JPY options has surged over 30% in the past month, reflecting market anticipation for a breakout. This suggests long volatility positions, such as straddles or strangles, could be more prudent than taking a simple directional bet.<\/p>\n
A surprise hold from the BoJ would likely see the JPY weaken significantly, potentially pushing EUR\/JPY through the 182.82 resistance and into a new leg up. Conversely, the expected rate hike could see the price quickly test the initial support at 181.18. A break below that level would shift the focus towards the lower Bollinger Band around 179.50.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/JPY holds gains near 182.75 amid bullish momentum; BoJ rate hike expectations may impact trend.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17054,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36702"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36702\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}