The article discusses market trends and swings over recent years, evidenced through a “percentage swing” chart. Notable market pullbacks occurred in late-2022 and early-2023, with declines of -7.3% and -7.8%, and a more severe -18.9% drop in early 2025 known as \u201cThe Tariff Crash\u201d. No significant decrease over -5% was noted between spring 2024 and spring 2025.<\/p>\n
Trend analysis shows the market developing upward since summer 2024, without major reversals until the “Tariff Crash”. A focus on the 50 and 200-day moving averages reveals ongoing market health and consistent upward movement, but warns of potential corrections ahead due to the current market positioning. Yet, an analysis of market momentum suggests confidence in continued upward trends.<\/p>\n
The article advises a focus on long-term strategies, recommending reliance on the 200-day and 50-day moving averages for market analysis, while ignoring short-term fluctuations and media projections. It suggests creating a personal investment strategy focused on a chosen timeframe or employing a professional advisor. The essential advice is to commit to a chosen investment strategy while remaining informed of market conditions.<\/p>\n
Looking back, we can see the market has been in a clear uptrend since the deep correction in the spring of 2025. That -18.9% “Tariff Crash” reset expectations, and since then, the path of least resistance has been higher. The minor -5% dip we saw in November was a brief scare, but the primary trend remains intact.<\/p>\n
As of today, December 9th, 2025, the S&P 500 is trading decisively above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a classic sign of strength. The index sits near 6250, while its 50-day moving average is around 6050 and the 200-day is much lower at 5600. This large gap between the price and its long-term average suggests we are overextended, increasing the chances of a pullback or sideways consolidation.<\/p>\n
The November pullback caused a spike in the VIX to over 25, but it has since settled back down to around 17, which is below its historical average. This drop in implied volatility makes buying options cheaper and selling them less profitable. For the coming weeks, we should consider strategies that benefit from the ongoing uptrend while respecting the risk of a short-term drop.<\/p>\n
Considering the strong underlying trend, selling out-of-the-money put credit spreads is a viable strategy for the weeks ahead. For instance, with the S&P 500 at 6250, a trader could sell a January put spread with strikes at 6100\/6050. This position profits if the index stays above 6100, which is comfortably above the 50-day moving average support level.<\/p>\n
Given the large gap between the current price and the 200-day moving average, a period of sideways chop is also a high probability as the market digests recent gains. An iron condor, which profits from a lack of movement, could be an effective way to trade this potential range-bound action. This involves selling a put spread below the market and a call spread above it, defining a profitable range for the index to trade within.<\/p>\n
The 50-day moving average, currently around 6050, is the key level to watch. As long as the market remains above this line, the bullish trend is considered healthy and pullbacks are buying opportunities. A decisive break below this level would be the first major warning sign that the trend is bending.<\/p>\n
We should focus on these price levels and ignore the news-driven noise about a potential “A.I. Bubble.” Market sentiment can shift quickly, but the trend and key moving averages provide a more reliable guide. The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision will likely introduce volatility, so any positions should be structured to withstand a potential short-term spike.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Market trends show growth since 2024; moving averages suggest strength, though corrections remain possible ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16994,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t