{"id":35314,"date":"2025-11-24T12:12:21","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T04:12:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=35314"},"modified":"2025-11-24T12:12:21","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T04:12:21","slug":"week-ahead-us-ppi-and-prelim-gdp-in-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-us-ppi-and-prelim-gdp-in-focus\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: US PPI and Prelim GDP in Focus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Image_fx-21-1024x559.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35325\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Traders eye the 10 December FOMC meeting for confirmation of a potential 25 bps rate cut.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>USD weakens as FedWatch shows a 71% chance of easing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Risk assets rise, with gold bouncing from $4,020 support.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>After months of \u201chigher for longer\u201d rhetoric, the latest labour data revealed a cooling but resilient jobs market. The delayed September NFP showed 119,000 jobs added, double expectations, but the jobless rate rose to 4.4%: the highest in four years. Revisions to July and August figures pointed to a slower trend overall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&#39;A very close call&#39;: Economists say long-awaited September jobs report complicates Fed rate cut path <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FCNjNRBKnN\">https:\/\/t.co\/FCNjNRBKnN<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1992625695864873171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 23, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The mixed tone leaves the Fed navigating a narrow path: strong hiring in key sectors like healthcare and education contrasts with rising continuing claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Division at the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent weeks, with officials staking out disparate positions ahead of the central bank\u2019s December policy meeting \u2014 all while Chair Jerome Powell stays silent. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zlWPwV7EDo\">https:\/\/t.co\/zlWPwV7EDo<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1992262961700692025?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 22, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This divergence underpins the growing belief that inflation is cooling faster than employment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Traders Price in a December Cut<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">FedWatch<\/a> probabilities flipped sharply last week. Markets now assign a <strong>71% chance of a 25 bp cut<\/strong> at the <strong>10 December FOMC<\/strong>, compared with just <strong>39% a day earlier<\/strong>. For January 2026, traders see a <strong>58% likelihood<\/strong> of another 25 bp cut, highlighting growing conviction that easing will begin soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"612\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-30-1024x612.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35324\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Lower yields boosted equities and weighed on the dollar. The 2-year Treasury yield slipped toward <strong>3.5%<\/strong>, while AI and tech names led the rally. Bitcoin and Ethereum\u2019s selloff has weakened, aligning with the broader mild &#8220;risk-on&#8221; rotation driven by softer yields and rising expectations of a December rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Risk Appetite Returns<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 rebounded after two weeks of losses, supported by dovish expectations and strong corporate earnings. Over <strong>80% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat profit forecasts<\/strong>, driven by tech and healthcare sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Dow, S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq futures leap, sparking hopes of rebound from November losses<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FD0h7ZyKDW\">https:\/\/t.co\/FD0h7ZyKDW<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1992776098330153389?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 24, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, oil prices stabilised after rebounding from the <strong>$57.60 support zone<\/strong>, and gold held firm near <strong>$4,000<\/strong>, supported by a softer USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Key Symbols to Watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>XAUUSD<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>USDX<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>SP500<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>BTCUSD<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>USOil<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\" id=\"keyevents\">Upcoming Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Date<\/td><td>Currency<\/td><td>Event<\/td><td>Forecast<\/td><td>Previous<\/td><td>Analyst Remarks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>25 Nov<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>PPI m\/m<\/td><td>-0.10%<\/td><td>-0.10%<\/td><td>Soft data could weigh on USD sentiment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>26 Nov<\/td><td>NZD<\/td><td>Official Cash Rate<\/td><td>2.25%<\/td><td>2.50%<\/td><td>RBNZ expected to maintain cautious tone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>26 Nov<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Core PCE Price Index m\/m<\/td><td>0.20%<\/td><td>0.20%<\/td><td>Inflation gauge to steer FOMC expectations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>26 Nov<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Prelim GDP q\/q<\/td><td>2.50%<\/td><td>2.90%<\/td><td>Focus on growth momentum before FOMC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>28 Nov<\/td><td>CAD<\/td><td>GDP m\/m<\/td><td>0.20%<\/td><td>-0.30%<\/td><td>Growth rebound may strengthen CAD ahead of December data<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\" id=\"keymove\">Key Movements of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Gold (XAUUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"547\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-29-1024x547.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35323\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gold bounced from <strong>$4,020<\/strong>, continuing its range between <strong>$3,940<\/strong> and <strong>$4,075<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Softer yields and rising cut odds underpin support near $4,000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A break below $3,940 could expose $3,900, while resistance remains at $4,075.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 (SP500)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"546\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-28-1024x546.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35322\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Index rebounded as rate-cut optimism drove tech stocks higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders watch <strong>6,760 resistance<\/strong> for directional bias amid easing yields.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sustained buying above 6,700 could open the door to a year-end rally.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">USD Index (USDX)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-27-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35321\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX eased from its peak, testing the <strong>99.65 zone<\/strong> for support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A bullish reversal could follow if the Fed tempers dovish expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Further downside to <strong>99.45<\/strong> remains possible if PCE cools sharply.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Bitcoin (BTCUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"546\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-26-1024x546.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35320\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BTC tested <strong>$81,700<\/strong>, slipping amid risk rotation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consolidation patterns suggest potential continuation of short-term weakness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders eye support near <strong>$80,000<\/strong>, with resistance around <strong>$84,000<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">US Oil (USOIL)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"546\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-25-1024x546.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35319\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Crude rebounded from <strong>$57.60<\/strong> toward <strong>$59.80<\/strong>, aided by improving sentiment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance sits at <strong>$61.05<\/strong>, with potential pullback zones near <strong>$59.05<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market focus shifts to OPEC+ signals and global demand data.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent rally in global markets is being driven less by fresh data and more by a reset in the Federal Reserve\u2019s tone. John Williams\u2019 comments that policy is only \u201cmodestly restrictive\u201d have opened the door to near-term easing, reigniting risk appetite across equities, gold, and crypto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the probability of a December rate cut climbing to 71%, traders have begun to reprice the path for monetary policy into early 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, the data tells a mixed story. The US labour market continues to generate jobs, but the unemployment rate has drifted higher to 4.4%, and jobless claims have reached levels last seen in 2021. Inflation risks appear to be receding faster than growth, giving the Fed scope to move toward a more neutral stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A December rate cut would validate much of what markets have already priced in, but a hold accompanied by dovish language could still keep risk sentiment buoyant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Fed\u2019s shifting tone and soft labour data have traders weighing the odds of a December rate cut. \u2013 vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":35325,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[32],"class_list":["post-35314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead","tag-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35314"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35314\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}