{"id":35229,"date":"2025-11-19T12:38:47","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T04:38:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=35229"},"modified":"2025-11-19T12:38:47","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T04:38:47","slug":"kiwi-under-pressure-as-rate-cut-looms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/kiwi-under-pressure-as-rate-cut-looms\/","title":{"rendered":"Kiwi Under Pressure as Rate Cut Looms"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Image_fx-2025-10-01T123703538-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31398\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>NZD\/USD<\/strong> fell <strong>0.50%<\/strong> to <strong>$0.5628<\/strong>, hovering near <strong>seven-month lows<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets fully price a <strong>25bps cut<\/strong> at the <strong>upcoming RBNZ meeting<\/strong>, potentially the last in this cycle.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>New Zealand dollar<\/strong> weakened to around <strong>$0.563<\/strong> on Wednesday, extending its decline amid growing confidence that the <strong>Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)<\/strong> will deliver another <strong>25 basis point rate cut<\/strong> next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets have now fully priced in the move, as recent economic data pointed to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/new-zealands-jobless-rate-increases-53-third-quarter-2025-11-04\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">sluggish domestic momentum<\/a> and easing inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">New Zealand\u2019s dollar is on the verge of becoming the first major developed-market currency to wipe out its gains against the greenback this year as aggressive central bank interest-rate cuts weigh on sentiment amid a faltering economy <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/p4c0HqpsFT\">https:\/\/t.co\/p4c0HqpsFT<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1987985230729281766?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 10, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today\u2019s release showed <strong>producer prices<\/strong> rose less than expected in the <strong>third quarter<\/strong>, reinforcing expectations that policymakers will maintain an accommodative stance to support growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, analysts suggest that the upcoming cut could mark the <strong>end of the easing cycle<\/strong>, with further moves unlikely unless global conditions worsen sharply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">External Factors Offer Limited Support<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The external backdrop remains mixed. While <strong>U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s<\/strong> decision to lift tariffs on more than <strong>200 food products<\/strong> last week could benefit New Zealand\u2019s export sector, the move has <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kP81ZrfAud\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">not provided meaningful near-term support to the Kiwi<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">NZ welcomes lifting of US tariffs on $1.25 billion in exports <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oiv1ds4Psc\">https:\/\/t.co\/oiv1ds4Psc<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oiv1ds4Psc\">https:\/\/t.co\/oiv1ds4Psc<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1990246028528824391?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 17, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global risk sentiment remains subdued, and the U.S. dollar has held firm ahead of key U.S. economic data, keeping the <strong>NZD\/USD<\/strong> pair under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>NZD\/USD<\/strong> trades around <strong>0.5628<\/strong>, down <strong>0.50%<\/strong>, with momentum remaining bearish on the <strong>daily chart<\/strong>. Prices hover near recent lows around <strong>0.5606<\/strong>, where the pair found temporary support earlier in the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-29-1024x446.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35230\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) remain aligned in a <strong>downtrend<\/strong>, while the <strong>MACD<\/strong> indicator continues to show negative momentum below the zero line. Immediate resistance is at <strong>0.5670<\/strong>, followed by <strong>0.5710<\/strong>, while key support sits at <strong>0.5600<\/strong> and <strong>0.5560<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>Kiwi dollar<\/strong> is likely to remain weak ahead of the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbnz.govt.nz\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">RBNZ meeting<\/a><\/strong>, with traders expecting a dovish tone in the policy statement. A confirmed rate cut could push <strong>NZD\/USD<\/strong> below <strong>0.5600<\/strong>, while any hint that easing is ending might trigger a short-term rebound toward <strong>0.5700<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the broader context, subdued global growth and soft commodity demand are likely to limit the currency\u2019s upside into year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The New Zealand dollar slipped near a seven-month low as traders priced another rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand next week. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":31398,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[10,72],"class_list":["post-35229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-forex","tag-kiwi"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - 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