{"id":35224,"date":"2025-11-19T10:58:44","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T02:58:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=35224"},"modified":"2025-11-19T10:58:44","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T02:58:44","slug":"dollar-steadies-as-rate-cut-bets-cool","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-steadies-as-rate-cut-bets-cool\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Steadies as Rate Cut Bets Cool"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-14T112706.474-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18365\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> traded near <strong>99.6<\/strong>, holding weekly gains as traders reassessed Fed rate cut expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets now see a <strong>47% probability<\/strong> of a <strong>25 bps cut in December<\/strong>, down from over <strong>90%<\/strong> a month ago.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>US dollar index<\/strong> remained little changed around <strong>99.6<\/strong> on Wednesday, consolidating its early-week gains as traders weighed mixed signals from Federal Reserve policymakers ahead of crucial US employment data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Investors are hedging against the Federal Reserve lowering borrowing costs next month even as the odds of another interest-rate cut have come down to a coin flip <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vIsHedGDVw\">https:\/\/t.co\/vIsHedGDVw<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1990898886660014503?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 18, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets have sharply repriced expectations for policy easing, now seeing less than even odds of a December rate cut. According to <strong>CME FedWatch<\/strong>, traders assign a <strong>47% chance<\/strong> of a <strong>25 basis point cut<\/strong>, compared with over <strong>90%<\/strong> a month earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent remarks from several Fed officials leaned hawkish, cautioning against premature easing amid lingering inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warns that weakening the agency\u2019s supervision may lead to \u201creal dangers\u201d that accumulate in the banking system, which over time might sow the seeds of a crisis <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/71onjlRcVE\">https:\/\/t.co\/71onjlRcVE<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1990806932953731427?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 18, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, <strong>Fed Governor Christopher Waller<\/strong> maintained that further rate cuts remain appropriate given <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AXsdexqpgj\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">persistent signs of weakness<\/a> in the <strong>US labour market<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Labour Market and Retail Earnings in Focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest <strong>Labor Department data<\/strong> showed <strong>initial jobless claims<\/strong> at <strong>232,000<\/strong> for the week ending <strong>October 18<\/strong>, with <strong>continuing claims<\/strong> rising to <strong>1.957 million<\/strong> \u2014 the highest since August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Initial jobless claims totaled 232,000 in the week ended Oct. 18, according to US Labor Department <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/RiB2SuHsZb\">https:\/\/t.co\/RiB2SuHsZb<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1990713711162523815?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 18, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The increase suggests some cooling in employment conditions, aligning with recent private payroll data that pointed to slowing hiring momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders are now turning their attention to the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.toc.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">September nonfarm payrolls report<\/a><\/strong>, due Thursday, for clues on the pace of job creation and wage growth heading into year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, earnings from major US retailers this week are expected to offer insights into consumer spending resilience, a key driver of the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> trades around <strong>99.52<\/strong>, up <strong>0.08%<\/strong> intraday. On the <strong>daily chart<\/strong>, the index continues to consolidate near the <strong>99.50<\/strong> level, supported by the <strong>30-day moving average<\/strong>, with short-term momentum stabilising after recent gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-28-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35225\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> indicator remains flat around the zero line, suggesting a period of indecision. Resistance is seen near <strong>99.85\u2013100.00<\/strong>, while initial support lies at <strong>99.10<\/strong>, followed by <strong>98.60<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The USDX\u2019s near-term direction hinges on this week\u2019s <strong>US jobs data<\/strong>. Strong payroll figures could revive talk of a policy pause and push the dollar higher toward <strong>100.00<\/strong>, while a weak reading would likely reinforce rate cut expectations, pulling the index back toward <strong>99.00<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, traders remain positioned defensively, awaiting clearer signals from both the labour market and consumer spending indicators before adjusting positions further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The dollar index steadied around 99.6 on Wednesday as traders tempered expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":18365,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,11],"class_list":["post-35224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-indices"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35224"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35224\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}