{"id":34929,"date":"2025-11-14T15:46:26","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T07:46:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=34929"},"modified":"2025-11-14T15:46:26","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T07:46:26","slug":"yields-climb-as-fed-pushes-back-on-rate-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/yields-climb-as-fed-pushes-back-on-rate-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Yields Climb as Fed Pushes Back on Rate Cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-67-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16622\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Fed rate cut odds<\/strong> fell to <strong>50.7%<\/strong> from <strong>63%<\/strong> the previous day, according to CME FedWatch.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>10-year Treasury yield<\/strong> climbed to <strong>4.121%<\/strong>, while the <strong>2-year yield<\/strong> rose to <strong>3.593%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>It has been a turbulent 24 hours for global markets as traders pared back expectations of a <strong>Federal Reserve rate cut<\/strong> in December, now viewed as a near 50-50 outcome. The reassessment came after a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials dampened hopes for early policy easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Alberto Musalem<\/strong>, President of the <strong>St. Louis Fed<\/strong>, said there was \u201climited room to ease further\u201d without risking excessive accommodation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Fed of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said officials should move cautiously with further interest rate reductions with inflation running above the central bank\u2019s 2% target <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lja8CN1eLd\">https:\/\/t.co\/lja8CN1eLd<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1989054431371870412?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 13, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cleveland Fed\u2019s Beth Hammack<\/strong> added that policy must remain restrictive to maintain downward pressure on inflation, while <strong>Minneapolis Fed\u2019s Neel Kashkari<\/strong> reiterated his opposition to a cut last month, stating he remains undecided on December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he didn\u2019t support the US central bank\u2019s last interest-rate cut <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/okGKIsGmu0\">https:\/\/t.co\/okGKIsGmu0<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1989069999558807644?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 13, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>According to <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">CME FedWatch<\/a><\/strong>, markets now price in a <strong>50.7% probability<\/strong> of a <strong>25-basis-point cut<\/strong> at the <strong>10 December<\/strong> meeting, down from <strong>63%<\/strong> a day earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Bond Yields Firm, Dollar Slides<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The yield on the <strong>10-year Treasury note (US10Y)<\/strong> edged up to <strong>4.121%<\/strong> from <strong>4.111%<\/strong> the previous day, while the <strong>2-year yield<\/strong> rose to <strong>3.593%<\/strong> from <strong>3.589%<\/strong>, reflecting a modest upward repricing in short-term rate expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Treasury yields little changed as investors cheer end of government shutdown <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AoOvl9Thei\">https:\/\/t.co\/AoOvl9Thei<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/1988922835419430980?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 13, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite firmer yields, the <strong>U.S. dollar index (USDX)<\/strong> fell <strong>0.1%<\/strong> to <strong>99.13<\/strong>, hovering near monthly lows. Analysts suggest that weaker sentiment in equities and risk assets limited the dollar\u2019s ability to capitalise on yield gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Dollar Index<\/strong>\u2019s subdued performance underscores the market\u2019s balancing act: higher yields on one side and growing economic uncertainty on the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>10-year U.S. Treasury note (USNote10Y)<\/strong> trades around <strong>112.71<\/strong>, up <strong>0.01%<\/strong>, consolidating after rebounding from this week\u2019s lows near <strong>112.00<\/strong>. On the <strong>daily chart<\/strong>, yields have stabilised following sharp swings earlier in the month, with short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) showing mild convergence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-24-1024x454.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34930\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> indicator signals waning bearish momentum, with the histogram flattening around zero. Immediate resistance is seen near <strong>113.00<\/strong>, with support around <strong>112.00<\/strong>. A break above <strong>113.00<\/strong> could open the way toward <strong>114.00<\/strong>, last tested in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The tone from Fed officials and recent data suggest the central bank may opt to <strong>hold rates steady<\/strong> in December. A sustained break above <strong>4.12%<\/strong> in the 10-year yield could pressure equities further, while a weaker <strong>USDX<\/strong> may offer partial relief to risk assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders will continue to monitor upcoming U.S. inflation revisions and Fed commentary, which remain key to shaping Treasury yields into year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US Treasury yields rose as Fed officials signalled caution on easing, pulling markets lower and reducing hopes for a December rate cut. \u2013 vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16622,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[43],"class_list":["post-34929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-bonds"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34929","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34929"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34929\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34929"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34929"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34929"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}