{"id":34745,"date":"2025-11-12T09:28:32","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T01:28:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=34745"},"modified":"2025-11-12T09:28:32","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T01:28:32","slug":"bitcoins-crash-was-a-reset-not-the-end-of-the-bull-run","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/featured\/bitcoins-crash-was-a-reset-not-the-end-of-the-bull-run\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin&#8217;s Crash Was a Reset, Not the End of the Bull Run"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/justin_khoo_banner_mobile-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25584\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s dramatic slide from $126,000 to below $100,000 sparked panic and billions in forced liquidations, but the recovery was just as swift. The cryptocurrency has since climbed back above $100,000, showing that the bulls aren\u2019t done yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin has fallen 9% so far this week, putting it on track for its worst weekly performance since March.<br><br>And <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> isn&#39;t alone.<br><br>Cryptocurrencies have declined 20% since the total market value of the asset class hit a record $4.4 trillion on Oct. 6. <br><br>(Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@business<\/a>) <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iXCU5KrShp\">pic.twitter.com\/iXCU5KrShp<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1986801419198828685?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 7, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s a sharp change in tone from the euphoria that followed Bitcoin\u2019s all-time high near <strong>$126,000<\/strong> earlier this year. Now, sentiment has swung to fear, even as the macro backdrop of <strong>rate cuts, improving liquidity, and ETF adoption<\/strong> looks more supportive than it has in years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin slumps nearly 20% from all-time high as strategist warns &#39;we could correct quite a bit more&#39; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/6cwd9Hlhqn\">https:\/\/t.co\/6cwd9Hlhqn<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1986940755881935308?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 7, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From where I stand, this isn\u2019t the start of a structural bear market. It looks more like <strong>a reset within a longer cycle:<\/strong> a shakeout designed to clear excesses before the next phase begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Why the Drop Happened<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The sell-off that pushed Bitcoin below $100K was largely <strong>mechanical<\/strong>. Leverage had built up to extremes across derivatives markets, and when momentum slowed, a chain of <strong>forced liquidations<\/strong> followed. Over <strong>$1 billion in long positions<\/strong> were wiped out within hours; a typical washout event that marks late-stage corrections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Corporate America\u2019s great Bitcoin trade is cracking \u2014 and both its architect and one high-profile skeptic are adjusting their bets <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WHcTwripnU\">https:\/\/t.co\/WHcTwripnU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1987913343135281261?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 10, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, capital rotated toward <strong>AI and semiconductor stocks<\/strong>, where optimism around U.S.\u2013China trade progress and corporate earnings reignited risk appetite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Insatiable demand for everything AI has driven up Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.\u2019s share price, but that\u2019s put some fund managers at risk of underperforming due to restrictions on portfolio concentration <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0CawSbXXgK\">https:\/\/t.co\/0CawSbXXgK<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1988369258804302181?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In crypto, by contrast, traders looked tired. <strong>Good news stopped moving markets, bad news hit harder<\/strong>, and momentum simply ran out of fuel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the macro side, things are shifting, but the business cycle hasn\u2019t fully caught up. Rates are falling, quantitative tightening is over, and liquidity is building, but growth remains uneven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Two US senators have proposed a bipartisan bill to shift cryptocurrency oversight from the Securities and Exchange Commission to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission \u2014 a move long favored by the industry <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IJE1pnn0jr\">https:\/\/t.co\/IJE1pnn0jr<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1988054703859482696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>To me, that suggests this is <strong>a delayed liquidity cycle<\/strong>, not a broken one. The fuel is there; the spark just hasn\u2019t hit yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">The Quiet Strength Behind the Bounce<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>What stood out most during this reset was what <em>didn\u2019t<\/em> happen. There were no exchange failures, no stablecoin dislocations, and no credit contagion. The market structure held up remarkably well, proof that <strong>crypto\u2019s institutional backbone has matured<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, <strong>stablecoin supply surged<\/strong> to record highs above <strong>$300 billion<\/strong>, even as Bitcoin fell. That signalled that investors hadn\u2019t left the ecosystem \u2014 they\u2019d simply moved to the sidelines, holding \u201c<strong>crypto cash<\/strong>\u201d and waiting for conviction to return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bank of England&#39;s Breeden says diluting stablecoin rules further could damage financial system <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aaIwOznDbH\">https:\/\/t.co\/aaIwOznDbH<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aaIwOznDbH\">https:\/\/t.co\/aaIwOznDbH<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1988369936977145916?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Now that prices have stabilised and liquidity conditions are improving, that dry powder is flowing back in. The <strong>Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR),<\/strong> which compares Bitcoin\u2019s market value to circulating stablecoins, remains at levels historically associated with <strong>early-stage recoveries<\/strong>, not late-cycle exhaustion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a macro standpoint, this tells me one thing: <strong>the capital base never left \u2014 it just waited for a better entry.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Bear Market or Mid-Cycle Reset?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Technically, Bitcoin meets the textbook definition of a <strong>bear market:<\/strong> more than a 20% drop, a break below its 200-day average, and fading momentum across on-chain metrics like <strong>MVRV.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-14-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34746\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But charts don\u2019t tell the whole story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>On the charts, yes, you can call this a bear market. From a macro angle, it looks more like a <strong>reset within a larger liquidity cycle<\/strong> \u2014 not the end of it. Monetary policy has started to ease, but the business cycle hasn\u2019t fully kicked in yet. If liquidity really ramps up into 2026, this drawdown could look like a <strong>mid-cycle shakeout before the main move<\/strong>, not the final chapter.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin is trading above $100K, but a break below this level could see it heading toward $92K\u2013$95K \u2014 areas where previous futures gaps and long-term averages align, potentially forming a base for accumulation if stablecoin flows rotate back into spot markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">What Could Help Bitcoin Recover<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Time and Stability<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets need time to digest forced selling. With leverage cleared, Bitcoin now has a cleaner base \u2014 one that could support a slower, more sustainable rebound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"2\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Rising Liquidity<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>With rate cuts underway and quantitative tightening behind us, global liquidity is expanding again. Deficit spending and low real yields continue to create a backdrop that <strong>favours scarce assets<\/strong> like Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"3\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Regulatory Clarity and Product Expansion<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>New <strong>ETF products<\/strong> and improving <strong>regulatory visibility<\/strong> are unlocking additional institutional and retail capital. That should gradually rebuild confidence, particularly if stablecoin oversight continues to mature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"4\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Scarcity Premium<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s <strong>scarcity narrative<\/strong> remains untouched. In a world of debasement and deficits, truly scarce assets still attract capital. If liquidity accelerates in 2026, I expect Bitcoin to reclaim higher ground \u2014 not as a speculative frenzy, but as part of a broader <strong>macro rotation into hard collateral assets.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Analyst Remarks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>From my perspective, this correction doesn\u2019t mark the end of the story, it\u2019s just the <strong>pause between chapters<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The macro landscape still favours Bitcoin: <strong>falling real rates, ongoing fiscal expansion, and persistent demand for scarce assets<\/strong>. Investors haven\u2019t left; they\u2019ve simply shifted to the sidelines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Treasuries rallied as trading in the cash market resumed after a holiday, with traders pricing in a higher chance of a Fed rate cut in December following a weak private payrolls report <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/S3zWMPvEAu\">https:\/\/t.co\/S3zWMPvEAu<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1988404500709744926?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 12, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Stablecoin balances are at record highs, and that\u2019s a key signal that capital is still in the ecosystem, waiting for confidence to return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If liquidity expands as expected into 2026, this could end up being <strong>a mid-cycle reset<\/strong> rather than a top. It\u2019s a painful pullback, yes, but also a cleansing one, and that\u2019s usually where new opportunities begin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Disclaimer<\/strong><br><em>The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of <strong>Justin Khoo<\/strong>, Market Analyst at VT Markets. They reflect his personal market analysis and insights, and do not necessarily represent the views or official position of <strong>VT Markets<\/strong>. This commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin\u2019s dramatic slide from $126,000 to below $100,000 sparked panic and billions in forced liquidations, but the recovery was just as swift. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":25584,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,28],"tags":[29],"class_list":["post-34745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-learn","tag-learn"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34745\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}