{"id":34538,"date":"2025-11-11T11:50:45","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T03:50:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=34538"},"modified":"2025-11-11T11:50:45","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T03:50:45","slug":"aussie-gains-as-shutdown-nears-resolution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/aussie-gains-as-shutdown-nears-resolution\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie Gains as Shutdown Nears Resolution"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Image_fx-2025-11-11T114102983-1024x559.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34540\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AUDUSD trades around <strong>0.6531<\/strong>, easing <strong>0.1%<\/strong> after jumping <strong>0.6%<\/strong> overnight to <strong>0.6540<\/strong>, its strongest in over a week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Local surveys showed Australian consumer optimism turning positive for the first time in nearly <strong>four years<\/strong>, reducing market expectations for further RBA easing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar extended its rally into Tuesday, supported by rising risk appetite and optimism that the <strong>41-day U.S. government shutdown<\/strong> could soon end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>U.S. Senate\u2019s approval<\/strong> of a funding bill, now headed to the House of Representatives, boosted global equities and weighed on the greenback, helping the Aussie recover from last week\u2019s lows near <strong>0.6468<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australia\u2019s consumer confidence soared in November as households turned more positive on the economy, a result that\u2019s likely to further reduce the chances of a near-term interest-rate cut <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3dgbyNGOEp\">https:\/\/t.co\/3dgbyNGOEp<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1988030667007926732?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 10, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Improved sentiment across markets saw risk currencies outperform, while safe-haven demand for the yen faded. The Aussie briefly touched <strong>0.6540<\/strong>, its highest level in over a week, before settling modestly lower during early Asian trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Domestic Resilience Supports the Aussie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Australian survey data added to the positive tone. November\u2019s consumer sentiment index showed optimism outnumbering pessimism for the first time since 2021, reflecting stronger household confidence in spending and job security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Commonwealth Bank of Australia\u2019s profit rose in the first quarter, supported by growth in lending to businesses and households <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3CodEoeZXo\">https:\/\/t.co\/3CodEoeZXo<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1987994357572538371?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 10, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Business activity surveys also hinted at firmer conditions, suggesting domestic demand remains resilient despite higher borrowing costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our research desk noted that improving consumer outlook could lift <strong>Q4 spending and GDP<\/strong>, reinforcing expectations that the <strong>Reserve Bank of Australia<\/strong> will hold rates steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australia\u2019s dollar is expected to rally further and post a rare annual gain this year as the central bank\u2019s relatively restrictive policy favors the local currency. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aoMepNWorC\">https:\/\/t.co\/aoMepNWorC<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1987600226966725108?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Three-year government bond futures fell <strong>2 basis points<\/strong> to <strong>96.275<\/strong>, while money markets now price just a <strong>60% chance<\/strong> of one final rate cut by <strong>May 2026<\/strong>, down from nearly 70% a week ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>AUD\/USD is consolidating around <strong>0.6528<\/strong>, easing slightly after a steady climb that peaked near <strong>0.6540<\/strong> earlier in the session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the 15-minute chart, price action shows a mild pullback following an extended rally from the <strong>0.6468<\/strong> base, with the shorter moving averages beginning to flatten against the 30-period trendline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-11-1024x461.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34539\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> has started to narrow, hinting that bullish momentum is fading in the near term. Still, the broader structure remains constructive as long as the pair holds above <strong>0.6515<\/strong>, suggesting buyers are not yet capitulating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar\u2019s performance remains tied to <strong>risk sentiment and <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DQnZ2XBDIL\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">China-related headlines<\/a><\/strong>, especially following cautious optimism after the <strong>Trump-Xi discussions<\/strong> and renewed trade cooperation rhetoric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rXqp7gvZ9O\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">weaker iron-ore demand signals<\/a> and fading expectations for further <strong>RBA tightening<\/strong> have kept upside potential in check.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short run, traders should watch for a sustained break above <strong>0.6540<\/strong> to confirm renewed bullish strength toward <strong>0.6570<\/strong>, while a close below <strong>0.6510<\/strong> could open room for a correction back toward <strong>0.6480<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market participants remain sensitive to U.S. inflation data later this week, which could heavily sway AUD\/USD\u2019s next directional move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With shutdown optimism and upbeat local sentiment underpinning risk appetite, AUDUSD looks poised to maintain a firm tone above <strong>0.6500<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A confirmed U.S. reopening and stable equity sentiment could push the pair toward <strong>0.6617<\/strong> in the coming sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, any delay in the U.S. fiscal deal or renewed risk aversion could see short-term profit-taking, driving AUDUSD back toward <strong>0.6480\u20130.6468<\/strong>. The broader structure remains constructive while the pair holds above the <strong>0.6500<\/strong> pivot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUDUSD steadied after surging overnight as  Australian sentiment data eased pressure on the RBA to cut rates further. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":34540,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[73,10],"class_list":["post-34538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-aud","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34538"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34538\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}