{"id":34263,"date":"2025-11-07T10:52:44","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T02:52:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=34263"},"modified":"2025-11-07T10:52:44","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T02:52:44","slug":"gold-regains-strength-as-rate-bets-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/gold-regains-strength-as-rate-bets-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Regains Strength as Rate Bets Rise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Image_fx-2025-10-02T112304981-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31436\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Spot gold rose 0.5% to <strong>$3,996.72<\/strong> per ounce, while U.S. December futures gained 0.3% to <strong>$4,004.40<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders now see a <strong>69% chance<\/strong> of a Fed rate cut in December, up from <strong>60%<\/strong> in the previous session.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold traded firmer on Friday, recovering toward the $4,000 handle after a softer dollar and weaker labour signals reignited expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut before year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The US government shutdown has broken records \u2014 and its economic consequences could prove even longer-lasting. The Big Take podcast breaks down the impacts on food assistance, housing, retail, air travel and more. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vsZl1EqS7Y\">https:\/\/t.co\/vsZl1EqS7Y<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1986563400235655546?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 6, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The extended U.S. government shutdown has curtailed the flow of official economic data, prompting traders to lean on private-sector surveys that suggest a cooling job market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The yellow metal gained <strong>0.5%<\/strong> to <strong>$3,996.72<\/strong>, while futures advanced <strong>0.3%<\/strong> to <strong>$4,004.40<\/strong>. Traders increased bets on easier policy, pricing in a <strong>69% probability<\/strong> of a rate cut at the Fed\u2019s <strong>10 December<\/strong> meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Non-yielding gold typically benefits in a low-interest-rate environment, and the combination of <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Xaxpnb1j22\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">soft data and fiscal gridlock<\/a> in Washington has encouraged defensive positioning among investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Labour Market Weakness Supports Safe-Haven Flows<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recent data shows the U.S. economy shed jobs in October, particularly in government and retail, with rising layoffs tied to automation and cost-cutting. Challenger reports pointed to a jump in announced job cuts, reinforcing the view of labour market fatigue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US layoffs for October surge to two-decade high, Challenger data shows <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yLLcg9Xxb9\">https:\/\/t.co\/yLLcg9Xxb9<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yLLcg9Xxb9\">https:\/\/t.co\/yLLcg9Xxb9<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1986546707455217709?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 6, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Benchmark <strong>U.S. 10-year Treasury yields<\/strong>, which touched a one-month high on Thursday, pulled back as traders sought safety in bonds and bullion. With major stock indices slipping, gold regained its appeal as a hedge against both policy and equity volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold (XAU\/USD) hovered near <strong>$4,000<\/strong>, recovering from earlier dips as buyers cautiously returned to the market. The 15-minute chart shows the metal consolidating after reaching an intraday high near <strong>$4,019<\/strong>, with short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) beginning to converge, suggesting stabilisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>MACD<\/strong> has crossed into positive territory, indicating that bullish momentum may be regaining strength after a brief correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-7-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34264\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The recent bounce reflects renewed safe-haven demand as traders weigh <strong>soft U.S. labour data<\/strong> and dovish expectations for the <strong>December Fed meeting<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets are now pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a rate cut, while geopolitical unease in the Middle East continues to support defensive positioning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the <strong>firm dollar<\/strong> and resilience in U.S. Treasury yields remain near-term headwinds, keeping gold from making a clean breakout above the <strong>$4,020\u2013$4,030<\/strong> zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If gold holds above <strong>$3,990<\/strong>, buyers could push for a retest of the recent high and potentially aim for <strong>$4,050<\/strong>. A failure to maintain this level, however, risks a retreat toward <strong>$3,950<\/strong>, where deeper profit-taking could emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For now, sentiment remains cautiously bullish. Gold\u2019s broader trend stays intact, but its next decisive move will hinge on how the Fed frames its policy stance in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the weak jobs narrative persists and the Fed continues to signal policy flexibility, gold could extend gains toward the <strong>$4,050\u20134,080<\/strong> range. A break above <strong>$4,020<\/strong> would reinforce the bullish outlook, targeting a retest of <strong>$4,100<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, if policymakers adopt a more guarded tone or if yields rebound, prices may consolidate between <strong>$3,950\u2013$4,000<\/strong>. The broader trend remains supported while gold holds above the <strong>$3,940<\/strong> level, keeping the bias modestly upward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold prices climbed back toward the $4,000 level as weak U.S. private-sector data and an extended government shutdown fuelled expectations of another Fed rate cut in December. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":31436,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[5,6],"class_list":["post-34263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-gold"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - 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