{"id":34252,"date":"2025-11-07T10:09:01","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T02:09:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=34252"},"modified":"2025-11-07T10:09:01","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T02:09:01","slug":"usdx-pulls-back-as-traders-bet-on-december-fed-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/usdx-pulls-back-as-traders-bet-on-december-fed-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"USDX Pulls Back as Traders Bet on December Fed Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-21T153439.500-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18912\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dollar Index drops to 99.674, reversing monthly gains as traders price a 70% chance of a Fed cut by 10 December.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Private surveys show job losses in retail and government sectors, while Challenger data points to a rise in U.S. layoffs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dollar Index (USDX) extended its retreat to 99.674, erasing earlier gains after private labour surveys suggested rising job losses during the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The move reflects trader caution amid a lack of official employment data, as the non-farm payrolls report remains postponed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;The data is moving their way,&quot; Hirtle Callaghan CIO Brad Conger says on the Federal Reserve, adding: &quot;It&#39;s trending for a [December] cut.&quot; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/J1OQvfDq21\">pic.twitter.com\/J1OQvfDq21<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1986174122905199016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 5, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders turned to alternative indicators for guidance. <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/challenger-job-cut-report-sparks-164524070.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">Challenger data revealed a spike in U.S. job cuts<\/a>, particularly in government and retail, while reports noted increased corporate layoffs linked to automation and cost optimisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The shift in sentiment saw the USDX shed 0.5%, its steepest daily drop in three weeks, after briefly testing above the 100.00 level earlier in the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Fed Policy Expectations Rise Amid Data Gaps<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Market pricing now implies a near-<strong>70% probability of a Fed rate cut<\/strong> at the December 10 meeting, up from <strong>62%<\/strong> just a day earlier, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">CME FedWatch Tool<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"627\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-11-1024x627.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34255\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The surge in rate expectations came despite Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee\u2019s remarks that the absence of inflation and labour data \u201caccentuates\u201d the need for caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">There&#39;s been a blackout of key inflation data as the government shutdown drags on \u2014 and the Chicago Fed&#39;s Austan Goolsbee told CNBC he&#39;s &quot;uneasy&quot; about cutting rates any further because of it. <br><br>Read his full comments. \ud83d\udc47\ufe0f <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IWdeYhA0Bb\">https:\/\/t.co\/IWdeYhA0Bb<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/1986451928046244073?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 6, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The lack of official releases during the shutdown has introduced an unusual layer of uncertainty for policymakers. Traders are increasingly focused on the upcoming personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report once data flow resumes, viewing it as critical for validating the Fed\u2019s easing trajectory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar index currently sits around <strong>99.63<\/strong>, having strengthened slightly but remaining below the psychological 100 mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On short-term (15-minute) chart chops, the 5-, 10-, and 30-period moving averages show a modest up-tilt, while the MACD has turned positive, signaling that short-term momentum is improving albeit from a low base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-6-1024x456.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34254\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Against this backdrop, recent macro news provides context: private sector data indicate job losses in October and rising lay-offs, raising speculation that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is now more likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carrying this into the technical picture: if the index fails to break and hold above <strong>~100.00\u2013100.20<\/strong>, it risks a pull-back toward <strong>99.10\u201399.50<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote\"><blockquote><p><em>Stay up-to-date on the latest chart movements by downloading the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, if it pushes through 100.00 with conviction, next targets might sit around <strong>100.70\u2013101.00<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In short, the bias is mildly bullish until or unless macro surprises lean the other way. The main pivot to watch is the <strong>100.00<\/strong> level. A breakout above this could herald stronger dollar strength, while rejection may lead to a short-term consolidation or retracement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If U.S. data continues to point toward weakening employment conditions, the Dollar Index may remain pressured below the <strong>100.00<\/strong> threshold. A sustained move under <strong>99.40<\/strong> could expose <strong>98.90<\/strong>, while recovery above <strong>99.80<\/strong> may draw profit-taking from short positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown and limited macro releases, traders are likely to maintain a defensive stance, using short-term rallies to adjust exposure until clearer labour and inflation signals emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The USDX fell 0.5% as private sector data hinted at U.S. job losses during the government shutdown, fuelling bets on a December rate cut. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":18912,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,11],"class_list":["post-34252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-indices"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34252","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34252"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34252\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18912"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34252"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34252"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34252"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}