{"id":33827,"date":"2025-11-03T16:13:56","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T08:13:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=33827"},"modified":"2025-11-03T16:13:56","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T08:13:56","slug":"dollar-holds-as-fed-split-clouds-december-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-holds-as-fed-split-clouds-december-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Holds as Fed Split Clouds December Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-22-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20980\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>USDX<\/strong> trades at <strong>99.55<\/strong>, just below Friday\u2019s <strong>three-month peak of 99.84<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets price in a <strong>68% probability<\/strong> of a December rate cut, per <strong>LSEG data<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fed officials remain <strong>divided<\/strong> on further easing, keeping traders cautious.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. dollar index steadied near recent highs on Monday, holding firm after last week\u2019s Federal Reserve meeting left markets uncertain about the central bank\u2019s next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell urged caution for investors betting on a December rate cut, while analyst Jeff Schulze from ClearBridge Investments told Reuters he still expects easing <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8dPkqLocRB\">pic.twitter.com\/8dPkqLocRB<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1984330782190805215?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 31, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed delivered a <strong>25-basis-point rate cut<\/strong> as expected, lowering the target range to <strong>3.75%\u20134.00%<\/strong>, but Chair <strong>Jerome Powell\u2019s<\/strong> remarks signalled a <strong>pause in policy easing<\/strong> may be possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Policy Divergence Within the Fed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Powell stated that another rate cut in December was \u201cnot a foregone conclusion,\u201d underscoring <strong>diverging opinions within the Fed<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While Governor <strong>Christopher Waller<\/strong> backed another cut this year, both <strong>Beth Hammack<\/strong> and <strong>Lorie Logan<\/strong> voiced caution, saying they saw <strong>no urgency<\/strong> to ease further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the US central bank should continue cutting interest rates at its next meeting in December, citing the risk of a continued slowdown in hiring <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hLINCDkjKx\">https:\/\/t.co\/hLINCDkjKx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1984361340111040787?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 31, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets remain divided as well, with futures data showing a <strong>68% chance<\/strong> of a December reduction, down from near <strong>90% before the Fed meeting<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The shift in expectations has helped the dollar consolidate its position against major peers, particularly as <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OlLU9PQy4e\" rel=\"nofollow\" title=\"\">U.S. yields remain elevated<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>U.S. Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> hovered near <strong>99.55<\/strong>, edging slightly higher as markets steadied following the <strong>Trump\u2013Xi meeting<\/strong>, which eased geopolitical tensions but left monetary policy expectations in focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The tone of cooperation between Washington and Beijing on trade, supply chains, and currency stability helped limit downside pressure on the greenback while keeping investors cautious ahead of this week\u2019s <strong>ISM and NFP data<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-1024x448.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33828\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Technically, the USDX is attempting a <strong>breakout above the 99.60 resistance zone<\/strong>, with short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) showing signs of bullish alignment. The <strong>MACD<\/strong> has turned positive, indicating improving momentum after weeks of sideways trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the diplomatic thaw capped haven demand, the dollar remains supported by relatively <strong>strong U.S. yields<\/strong> and expectations that the <strong>Fed will maintain its cautious stance<\/strong> on rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A sustained close above 99.60 could open the door toward the <strong>100.00 psychological level<\/strong>, whereas immediate support sits around <strong>98.80<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dollar is likely to stay range-bound ahead of this week\u2019s <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/RtK9qrnCD7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">U.S. inflation and labour data<\/a><\/strong>, with traders watching for signs that could tilt the Fed\u2019s stance either way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Persistent divisions among policymakers and Powell\u2019s cautious tone leave markets <strong>data-dependent<\/strong>, with short-term moves likely driven by macro releases and risk sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The dollar hovered near a three-month high on Monday as traders weighed mixed signals from Federal Reserve policymakers. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":20980,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,11],"class_list":["post-33827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-indices"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US dollar stays firm as Fed officials differ on December rate cut. 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