{"id":33807,"date":"2025-11-03T14:42:38","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T06:42:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=33807"},"modified":"2025-11-03T14:42:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T06:42:38","slug":"week-ahead-trade-truce-drives-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-trade-truce-drives-november\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: Trade Truce Drives November"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Image_fx-2025-11-03T123320125-1024x559.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33815\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Overview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The main theme is dollar resilience amid fading expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders will watch ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, as well as the Bank of England rate decision, for fresh direction.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A rotation from growth to value and from euro\/dollar pairs into commodity-linked currencies may unfold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>RBA expected to hold rates at 3.6%, with policy tone watched for signs of regional divergence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Key data: ISM (3 Nov), RBA cash rate and JOLTS openings (4 Nov), BoE rate decision (6 Nov), US non-farm payrolls (8 Nov).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets face a week of hesitation rather than conviction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Federal Reserve\u2019s late-October message changed the tone: a December rate cut is no longer a certainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chair Powell stressed that policy will depend on incoming data; yet a federal government shutdown means much of that data isn\u2019t even arriving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell urged caution for investors betting on a December rate cut, while analyst Jeff Schulze from ClearBridge Investments told Reuters he still expects easing <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8dPkqLocRB\">pic.twitter.com\/8dPkqLocRB<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1984330782190805215?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 31, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Without clear visibility, the Fed is \u201cdriving in fog\u201d, and traders are reassessing how quickly easing might resume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The result: a conflicted dollar, cautious equities, and traders leaning toward safety until the fog clears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">The Fog Before the Cut<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Before October\u2019s FOMC meeting, futures markets were nearly unanimous in expecting a <strong>December rate cut<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After Powell\u2019s remarks, the mood flipped. The <strong>CME FedWatch tool<\/strong> shows cut odds plunging from roughly <strong>90% to 63%<\/strong>, while <strong>Polymarket odds<\/strong> echo a <strong>66% probability<\/strong> of a quarter-point cut and <strong>32% chance of no change<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"929\" height=\"645\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/3_image-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33814\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, the market still expects easing\u2014but no longer trusts it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This shift stems from Powell\u2019s emphasis on <strong>divided policymaker views<\/strong> and the <strong>data blackout<\/strong> caused by the federal shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Treasury yields edge higher as investors grapple with data blackout <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/axmGttK3wz\">https:\/\/t.co\/axmGttK3wz<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/1984204358683123762?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 31, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>With no fresh economic numbers, policymakers are flying blind, and traders are hedging both sides of the trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Volatility pricing suggests markets are preparing for a slower, messier glidepath into December rather than a clean rate-cut narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">A Case for Patience<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If inflation continues its downward slide, the Fed will have the cover to cut\u2014but not the pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The September <strong>CPI rose 3.0% y\/y<\/strong>, up slightly from 2.9% due to energy prices, yet the underlying picture looks softer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Core CPI<\/strong> held steady at <strong>0.3% m\/m<\/strong>, consistent with a gradual slowdown.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The <strong>shelter <\/strong><strong>component<\/strong>\u2014the single biggest driver of inflation\u2014fell to <strong>0.16% m\/m<\/strong>, the lowest in over a year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>More than <strong>51% of CPI components are now deflating<\/strong> from their peaks, compared with a long-term average of 32%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This breadth of disinflation suggests the fight against inflation is largely won.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed staff still projects <strong>core PCE<\/strong> to end the year near <strong>3%<\/strong>, but the overall tone of price pressures has turned decisively lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The takeaway: inflation is cooling \u201clike a rock\u201d, yet the Fed remains wary of cutting too soon and risking a rebound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">From Euphoria to Hesitation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The market\u2019s behaviour after Powell\u2019s comments says it all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Equities<\/strong> pulled back from recent highs as traders priced in fewer cuts and slower growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The <strong>US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> rebounded toward the <strong>99.00\u2013100.00<\/strong> zone, reflecting a defensive bias.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gold<\/strong> stalled near <strong>$4,070<\/strong>, trapped between softer inflation and a stronger dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Yields<\/strong> edged lower but not enough to trigger renewed equity momentum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, on prediction platforms like <strong>Polymarket<\/strong>, the sharp decline in certainty mirrors broader investor sentiment\u2014still leaning dovish but hedged aggressively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The total wagering volume of <strong>over $9 million<\/strong> on the Fed\u2019s December market shows how crucial this decision has become to global positioning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Easing Ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The path forward likely depends less on one data print and more on how long the uncertainty lasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the shutdown drags on beyond mid-November as current betting odds suggest, the Fed could enter December with incomplete data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That scenario argues for <strong>a 25 bps cut<\/strong> as the base case, but with <strong>low conviction<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In essence, markets are confronting a split narrative:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Macro data<\/strong> support a cut.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Policy caution<\/strong> delays it.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Risk assets<\/strong> drift sideways in the meantime.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Key Symbols to Watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>BTCUSD | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/precious-metals\/\">XAUUSD<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\">USDX<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\">GBPUSD<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\">SP500<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\" id=\"keyevents\">Upcoming Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Date<\/td><td>Currency<\/td><td>Event<\/td><td>Forecast<\/td><td>Previous<\/td><td>Analyst Remarks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3 Nov 2025<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/td><td>49.4<\/td><td>49.1<\/td><td>A print above 50 would signal sector stabilisation and reinforce USD strength.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4 Nov 2025<\/td><td>AUD<\/td><td>RBA Cash Rate<\/td><td>3.60%<\/td><td>3.60%<\/td><td>The RBA is set to hold; tone on inflation and growth may guide AUD volatility.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4 Nov 2025<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>JOLTS Job Openings<\/td><td>7.21 M<\/td><td>7.23 M<\/td><td>Persistent declines in openings would point to cooling labour demand and weigh on the dollar.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5 Nov 2025<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>ISM Services PMI<\/td><td>50.8<\/td><td>50<\/td><td>Service-sector momentum remains crucial for growth outlook; above 51 favours USD rebound.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6 Nov 2025<\/td><td>GBP<\/td><td>BoE Official Bank Rate<\/td><td>4.00%<\/td><td>4.00%<\/td><td>No policy change expected; forward-guidance language will determine GBP bias.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8 Nov 2025<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Core PCE m\/m (Tentative)<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>The Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge; soft reading may revive December cut hopes.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8 Nov 2025<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Non-Farm Payrolls<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>Jobs and wage data will define rate-cut probability and short-term USD direction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8 Nov 2025<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Unemployment Rate<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>Any uptick above 4 % could tilt sentiment dovish and pressure yields.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For full view of upcoming economic events, check out VT Market&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/economic-calendar\/\">Economic Calendar<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\" id=\"keymove\">Key Movements of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">USDX (Dollar Index)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"485\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-4-1024x485.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33811\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Still supported by reduced rate-cut certainty; consolidation near 99.00.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Watch 98.50 as short-term support; resistance at 100.20.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Break above 100 could extend toward 100.75; reversal signals near 98.50.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Gold (XAUUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"487\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-3-1024x487.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33810\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stalled around $4,070 as traders balance cooling inflation with firmer yields.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance at $4,120; support near $3,930.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Range-bound until clearer Fed direction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">SP500<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"543\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-2-1024x543.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33809\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pulled back after testing 6,950 as caution dominates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>6,750 support remains critical; 7,000 psychological barrier caps upside.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sensitive to shifts in rate-cut probabilities and shutdown headlines.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">BTCUSD<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"488\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-1-1024x488.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33808\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Consolidating above 106,000; upside targets 112,800\u2013114,650 if risk stabilises.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Break below 106,000 exposes 103,500.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Volatility may pick up as liquidity thins into mid-month.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Market Snapshot<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets have shifted from confidence to caution following Powell\u2019s recent remarks, which underscored the Federal Reserve\u2019s data-dependent stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although inflation continues to ease across key sectors, the path forward for policy remains uncertain. Traders are now positioning for a possible rate cut in December, but with no clear signal from the Fed, the U.S. dollar has held steady and broader risk sentiment remains subdued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets weigh Powell\u2019s cautious tone, BoE and RBA holds, and a strong US dollar as November begins. \u2013 vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":33815,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[32],"class_list":["post-33807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead","tag-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33807"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33807\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}