{"id":32164,"date":"2025-10-14T13:49:39","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T05:49:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=32164"},"modified":"2025-10-14T13:49:39","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T05:49:39","slug":"oil-gains-as-us-china-talks-boost-mood","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/oil-gains-as-us-china-talks-boost-mood\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Gains as US-China Talks Boost Mood"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Oil1-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41756\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WTI crude rose 0.4% to $59.71, while Brent gained 0.4% to $63.54.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Optimism over US-China dialogue supported prices, though broader uncertainty capped gains.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil prices<\/strong> climbed on Tuesday as early signs of progress in <strong>US-China trade relations<\/strong> improved market sentiment and eased worries about global fuel demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The United States and China on October 14 will begin charging port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world&#39;s two largest economies <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/s0l2YyJEWJ\">https:\/\/t.co\/s0l2YyJEWJ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1977917290415800584?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>US Treasury Secretary <strong>Scott Bessent<\/strong> said that President <strong>Donald Trump<\/strong> remained committed to meeting Chinese President <strong>Xi Jinping<\/strong> in <strong>South Korea<\/strong> later this month. Both sides held substantial communications over the weekend, with additional meetings planned in the coming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Trade Thaw Supports Oil<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Brent crude futures rose <strong>22 cents, or 0.4%, to $63.54 per barrel<\/strong> by 0405 GMT, while <strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI)<\/strong> gained <strong>22 cents, or 0.4%, to $59.71 per barrel<\/strong>. In the previous session, Brent had settled 0.9% higher, while WTI gained 1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The prospect of improved trade ties between the two largest economies has historically lifted oil prices, as traders anticipate stronger global growth and higher energy consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Global Backdrop Remains Mixed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the tentative optimism, traders remain cautious. Recent developments, such as <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/BqKgtUyQcr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">Beijing\u2019s expanded export controls<\/a> on rare earth minerals<\/strong> and <strong>Trump\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/otknaxEsBL\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">threats of 100% tariffs<\/a> and software export restrictions<\/strong>, have kept market volatility elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The oil market also remains sensitive to new global flashpoints. Trump on Monday declared the end of the <strong>two-year Gaza conflict<\/strong>, which had weighed on Middle Eastern supply dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">President Donald Trump used a one-day tour of Israel and Egypt to soak in the praise from fellow leaders and lay out a vision for broader Middle East peace after the success of US-led mediation efforts to end the fighting in Gaza.<br><br>Now comes the even harder part:\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/eAYP5qwwbR\">pic.twitter.com\/eAYP5qwwbR<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1977915050284273782?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, China\u2019s decision to impose levies on <strong>US-owned ships<\/strong>, including oil tankers, prompted last-minute cancellations and a spike in freight rates, according to ANZ analyst <strong>Daniel Hynes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">OPEC+ Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, stated in their latest monthly report that the supply shortfall is expected to<strong> narrow in 2026<\/strong> as the OPEC+ coalition proceeds with planned production increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">OPEC kept its outlook for the oil market unchanged, while the group and its partners increased crude production by more than half a million barrels a day in September. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ep5fjW2L05\">https:\/\/t.co\/Ep5fjW2L05<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1977708521652158667?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 13, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This suggests that while near-term supply constraints remain supportive, longer-term output expansion could temper price gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil (<strong>CL-OIL<\/strong>) is currently trading around <strong>$59.51<\/strong>, down marginally by <strong>0.04%<\/strong>, as prices consolidate near five-month lows amid concerns over slowing global demand and persistent supply resilience from major producers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite OPEC+ production discipline, rising output from non-OPEC countries such as the U.S. and Brazil has capped any bullish momentum, while weaker-than-expected Chinese factory and trade data have reignited fears of a broader economic slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a <strong>technical perspective<\/strong>, oil remains in a <strong>downtrend<\/strong>, struggling to recover above key moving averages. The price is trading below the <strong>5-, 10-, and 30-day MAs<\/strong>, signalling strong bearish control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/WhatsApp-Image-2025-10-14-at-124422-1024x446.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32165\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The breakdown below the <strong>$60.00<\/strong> psychological level and the <strong>$62.00<\/strong> short-term resistance confirms a sustained downside bias. The next major <strong>support<\/strong> lies near <strong>$55.00<\/strong>, the year-to-date low marked earlier in April, while a close back above <strong>$63.00<\/strong> would be needed to signal any meaningful rebound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> continues to reflect bearish momentum, with the signal line trending above the MACD line and a deepening red histogram, suggesting continued selling pressure. Unless a strong catalyst emerges, short-term rallies are likely to be capped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fundamentally, investors are watching for fresh cues from the <strong>U.S. inventory data<\/strong> later this week, which could provide clarity on near-term demand trends. Meanwhile, the stronger U.S. dollar is adding an additional headwind for commodity-linked assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil\u2019s short-term direction will depend on progress in <strong>US-China trade discussions<\/strong> and the broader demand outlook. While easing rhetoric between Washington and Beijing has offered some relief, the market remains vulnerable to renewed tensions or disappointing data on global consumption trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil steadies as easing US-China tensions lift demand sentiment after last week\u2019s sharp pullback \u2013 vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41756,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-32164","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32164","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32164"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32164\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41756"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32164"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32164"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32164"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}