{"id":31826,"date":"2025-10-09T10:12:31","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T10:12:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=31826"},"modified":"2025-10-09T10:12:31","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T10:12:31","slug":"gold-pauses-after-4k-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/gold-pauses-after-4k-surge\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Pauses After $4K Surge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/download-14-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20953\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Spot gold eased 0.2% to $4,029.86 after touching a record high of $4,059.05 on Wednesday.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets now price in a 93% chance of an October Fed rate cut and a 78% probability of another in December.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold retreated slightly on Thursday, falling <strong>0.2% to $4,029.86 per ounce<\/strong> by 0642 GMT, after reaching an unprecedented <strong>$4,059.05<\/strong> on Wednesday. The pullback came as investors booked profits following a record-setting rally driven by economic uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and expectations of further <strong>Federal Reserve rate cuts<\/strong> this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold dipped after peaking at an all-time high above $4,000 an ounce on Wednesday, following a torrid rally that\u2019s left prices vulnerable to pullbacks amid signs that the precious metal is trading at overheated levels <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5uXh2553ok\">https:\/\/t.co\/5uXh2553ok<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1976073231724343383?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 8, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. gold futures for December delivery slipped <strong>0.6% to $4,047.80<\/strong>, while spot prices hovered near historic highs, holding comfortably above the $4,000 level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Fed Policy and Market Sentiment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Minutes from the <strong>September 16\u201317 Fed meeting<\/strong> revealed that policymakers acknowledged growing risks to the U.S. labour market, signalling greater openness to monetary easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, officials also noted lingering inflation concerns, tempering expectations for an aggressive rate-cut cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Fed last month saw rising risks to job market, but remained wary on inflation <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/blhPa9Wa2A\">https:\/\/t.co\/blhPa9Wa2A<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/blhPa9Wa2A\">https:\/\/t.co\/blhPa9Wa2A<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1976055032404377840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 8, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are now fully pricing in a <strong>25-basis-point cut in October<\/strong> with a <strong>93% probability<\/strong>, followed by another in <strong>December<\/strong> with a <strong>78% likelihood<\/strong>, according to the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">CME FedWatch Tool<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The prospect of lower rates continues to bolster non-yielding assets such as gold, which tend to outperform in a softening policy environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Global Developments<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Global tensions fuelled gold&#8217;s surge, though easing risks may have prompted the latest round of profit-taking. On Wednesday, <strong>Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s Gaza plan. <\/strong>The ceasefire and hostage exchange deal could pave the way to ending a two-year conflict described by the U.N. as genocidal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of President Donald Trump&#39;s plan for Gaza, a ceasefire and hostage deal that could be a first step toward ending a bloody two-year-old war that has roiled the Middle East. Here&#39;s what is known and not known so far:\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GZTkhMRp57\">pic.twitter.com\/GZTkhMRp57<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1976206011330424844?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Key market analysts remain somewhat sceptical of the move. While the ceasefire removes one of the key drivers of safe-haven demand, \u201cit\u2019s probably just a handy excuse to take profits after hitting another record.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold (<strong>XAU\/USD<\/strong>) is trading around <strong>$4,029.42<\/strong>, down <strong>0.30%<\/strong> on the day after briefly touching fresh record highs earlier this week. The metal\u2019s recent rally has shown signs of cooling, with traders locking in profits near the <strong>$4,050\u2013$4,100<\/strong> psychological resistance zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite this modest pullback, the broader bullish trend remains firmly intact, underpinned by ongoing macro uncertainty and sustained demand for safe-haven assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-12-1024x448.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31827\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Technically, gold\u2019s uptrend remains strong. Prices continue to trade above all major moving averages (<strong>5-, 10-, and 30-day MAs<\/strong>), reflecting sustained upward momentum even amid short-term corrections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> also remains deeply in bullish territory, though the histogram bars are beginning to shorten. Buying momentum may be losing steam as the market consolidates at elevated levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The immediate <strong>support zone<\/strong> lies near <strong>$3,950\u2013$3,970<\/strong>, corresponding to minor swing lows formed earlier in the week. A deeper retracement could bring prices toward <strong>$3,850<\/strong>, aligning with the 10-day moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, a decisive break above <strong>$4,100<\/strong> would confirm a continuation of the bullish move, with upside potential extending toward <strong>$4,200\u2013$4,250<\/strong> in the medium term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Fundamentally, gold\u2019s strength continues to be supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/d2w08F1NBt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">moderating Treasury yields<\/a>, and growing unease over the prolonged U.S. government shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With investors rotating into safe havens amid volatile risk sentiment, gold has maintained its appeal as a hedge against both political and economic instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, while short-term consolidation appears likely after the sharp rally, the <strong>broader outlook for gold remains bullish<\/strong>. As long as gold holds above <strong>$3,950<\/strong>, dips are likely to attract renewed buying interest from both institutional and retail traders seeking to capitalise on safe-haven demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold prices edged lower after briefly surpassing $4,000\/oz amid easing global tensions and renewed optimism over potential U.S. rate cuts. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":20953,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[5,6],"class_list":["post-31826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-gold"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31826","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31826"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31826\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}