{"id":31518,"date":"2025-10-03T09:56:16","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T09:56:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=31518"},"modified":"2025-10-03T09:56:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T09:56:16","slug":"euro-steadies-as-volatility-hits-ten-month-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/euro-steadies-as-volatility-hits-ten-month-low\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro Steadies as Volatility Hits Ten-Month Low"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Image_fx-2025-10-03T175502582-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31522\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EUR\/USD traded at $1.1738 as three-month implied volatility fell to 6.470%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Options market risk reversals show demand for euro calls, pointing to upside bias.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The euro traded around $1.1738 on Friday, as implied volatility in the options market dropped to its lowest level in nearly a year. According to LSEG data, three-month implied volatility for EUR\/USD fell to 6.470%, marking its weakest point since November 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the calm backdrop, positioning remains tilted toward euro strength. Traders continue to show favour towards call options over puts, with the three-month risk reversals holding ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The European Union\u2019s progress toward a multitrillion euro savings and investment union is being hampered by member states defending their own national interests, the bloc\u2019s financial services chief said <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HhKzhO92Nw\">https:\/\/t.co\/HhKzhO92Nw<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1973817955352772746?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analysts suggest this drop in volatility is less about fading interest in EUR\/USD moves and more about expectations of quieter market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reduction in expected swings is partly tied to the ongoing <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ox8sXZSxcA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">U.S. government shutdown<\/a>, which has delayed the release of crucial economic data, including the nonfarm payrolls report. With the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sZT7xaUhST\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Federal Reserve\u2019s policy outlook clouded<\/a> by a lack of fresh data, traders are less inclined to price in sharp moves in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong> pair is trading at <strong>1.1738<\/strong>, up <strong>0.19%<\/strong> on the day, showing mild strength after a period of consolidation. The pair has been trapped in a sideways range between <strong>1.1500\u20131.1900<\/strong> since mid-summer, with momentum stalling despite attempts to break higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a technical perspective, the <strong>50-day moving average<\/strong> continues to act as a dynamic support zone, while the <strong>resistance at 1.1918<\/strong> (July high) remains the key barrier to overcome for further upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-7-1024x457.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31520\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The long consolidation suggests that the market is waiting for a catalyst like US macro data, ECB policy signals, or developments in the ongoing <strong>US government shutdown <\/strong>to determine the next breakout direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>MACD<\/strong> shows a flat momentum structure, with both signal and MACD lines hovering close together around the zero line, reflecting a lack of strong directional conviction. The histogram has turned slightly positive, hinting at modest bullish bias, but without strong follow-through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For traders, the setup remains range-bound. A sustained move above <strong>1.1900<\/strong> could unlock upside potential toward <strong>1.2050<\/strong>, while a break below <strong>1.1500<\/strong> risks a decline toward the <strong>1.1300 support zone<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Until then, EUR\/USD may continue to drift sideways with low volatility, making short-term scalping or range strategies more favourable than trending plays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/USD held near $1.1738 on Friday, with implied volatility dropping to its lowest since  November 2024. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":31522,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[56,10],"class_list":["post-31518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-euro","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - 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18:03:07","breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":false,"open_ai":null,"ai":null,"created":"2026-03-02 11:31:14","updated":"2026-06-26 18:03:07"},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/category\/analysis\/\" title=\"Today&apos;s Analysis\">Today's Analysis<\/a>\n<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\tEuro Steadies as Volatility Hits Ten-Month Low\n<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia"},{"label":"Today's Analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/category\/analysis\/"},{"label":"Euro Steadies as Volatility Hits Ten-Month 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