Gold experienced a modest rise but remains below its record peak as traders take a breather in the face of overbought conditions. The backdrop remains favourable for gold, with geopolitical tensions and a partial US government shutdown providing support for the precious metal. <\/p>\n
Investors are leaning towards gold as uncertainty persists, with gold rising by 45% since 2025 and 11% in September. A failed Republican spending bill could lead to further government shutdowns, potentially boosting gold demand and encouraging easing from the Federal Reserve. <\/p>\n
Traders are betting on a 95% chance of a rate cut at the October Federal Reserve meeting and a 75% probability of another in December. While Dallas Fed President Logan cautioned about inflation, geopolitical risks like Russia’s stance on US missile supplies to Ukraine further support gold. <\/p>\n
Technically, the gold price is in a positive outlook, although the RSI indicates overbought conditions. Any dip below $3,835 may find buying support, but a drop below $3,800 could lead to deeper losses. <\/p>\n
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, through rate adjustments, greatly impacts the US dollar. Quantitative easing and tightening are tools used in specific economic scenarios, influencing the dollar’s strength.<\/p>\n
Given gold’s extremely overbought condition, we see the current pause below the all-time high as a healthy consolidation rather than a reversal. The fundamental picture, driven by geopolitical risk and the US government shutdown, remains highly supportive for bullion. Any pullback towards support should be seen as a buying opportunity, as the path of least resistance is still upwards.<\/p>\n
The partial US government shutdown, which began this week in October 2025, is a significant tailwind for safe-haven assets. Looking back at the prolonged 35-day shutdown that started in late 2018, we saw gold prices rally over 4% during that period of political instability. We anticipate a similar flight to safety now, which could push prices even higher.<\/p>\n
Market conviction for a Federal Reserve pivot is incredibly strong, with Fed fund futures pricing in a 95% chance of a rate cut this month. This sentiment is hardening despite core inflation still lingering around 3.2% as of the last report for August 2025. This echoes the sentiment we saw in late 2023, when expectations of rate cuts in 2024 fueled a major gold rally.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this suggests a “buy the dip” strategy using options is prudent. Rather than chasing the top, consider selling out-of-the-money put options with strike prices near key support levels like $3,800 or $3,750 for November expiration. This approach allows you to collect premium while waiting for a more attractive entry point.<\/p>\n
Those trading futures should watch the $3,816 to $3,835 area closely, as this ascending trend-line represents the first major support. Establishing new long positions on a dip to this zone could offer a favorable risk-reward ratio. A break below the $3,800 psychological level, however, would warrant a temporary defensive stance.<\/p>\n
The bullish outlook is further confirmed by institutional positioning. The latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) report from late September 2025 showed that money managers increased their net-long positions in gold futures to the highest level in over two years. This shows that large speculators are aligned with the view that gold has more room to run.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold rises on geopolitical tensions and rate cut bets; overbought signals suggest cautious optimism among traders.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16976,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31411\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16976"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}