{"id":31240,"date":"2025-09-25T03:50:59","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T03:50:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=31240"},"modified":"2025-09-25T03:50:59","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T03:50:59","slug":"kiwi-holds-near-1-month-low-to-mixed-rate-pressures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/kiwi-holds-near-1-month-low-to-mixed-rate-pressures\/","title":{"rendered":"Kiwi Holds Near 1-Month Low to Mixed Rate Pressures"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/kiwi1-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16995\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NZD\/USD steadies at <strong>$0.5821<\/strong>, following a <strong>0.8% drop<\/strong> overnight to a one-month low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>RBNZ expected to cut rates to <strong>2.75%<\/strong> next month, with a <strong>30% chance of a 50 bps move<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Anna Breman appointed as the new RBNZ Governor, set to start on <strong>December 1<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure, consolidating around <strong>$0.5821<\/strong> after its steepest daily drop in a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The slide followed renewed strength in the US dollar, as Federal Reserve officials emphasised caution on the pace of rate cuts, tempering dovish market expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said further interest-rate cuts are likely needed, but the US central bank should approach those with caution <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/k4MiPc0lFP\">https:\/\/t.co\/k4MiPc0lFP<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1970954427793027153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 24, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The focus now shifts to <strong>Friday\u2019s US PCE price index<\/strong>, the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, which could provide clearer direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A stronger print may reinforce the Fed\u2019s measured stance and extend the Kiwi\u2019s downside, while a softer reading could offer near-term relief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In contrast, New Zealand faces a weaker domestic backdrop. The <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JbpCFUHxnt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">RBNZ is expected to cut rates to 2.75% in October<\/a><\/strong>, with a material chance of a deeper 50bps reduction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This dovish outlook has weighed heavily on the currency, particularly as the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a more balanced tone, pushing <strong>NZD\/AUD to a three-year low<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Leadership Change at the RBNZ<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a historic appointment, <strong>Swedish central banker Anna Breman<\/strong> was named as the next <strong>Governor of the RBNZ<\/strong>, succeeding Adrian Orr. She will begin her five-year term on <strong>December 1st<\/strong>, becoming the <strong>first woman<\/strong> to hold the role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">In incoming Governor Anna Breman, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is getting a policymaker that leans toward favoring bolder stimulus, according to economists in her home country of Sweden <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ea3AjcqVan\">https:\/\/t.co\/ea3AjcqVan<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1970824141956645187?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 24, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Her appointment has been viewed as slightly dovish by markets, given her previous advocacy for <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KrOxVqZBxv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">labour market-centric policy frameworks<\/a><\/strong> and progressive financial inclusion strategies during her tenure at the Riksbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NZD\/USD is trading at <strong>0.5821<\/strong>, up a modest <strong>0.13%<\/strong>, after testing recent lows. The pair has been under consistent pressure since July\u2019s peak at <strong>0.6120<\/strong>, sliding steadily toward the <strong>0.5800<\/strong> support area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This zone is critical, as it marks the lower boundary of the multi-month consolidation range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The moving averages (5, 10, 30) are aligned bearishly, with shorter-term averages pulling below the longer-term line, suggesting continued downward momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-27-1024x440.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31241\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, the <strong>MACD remains negative<\/strong>, although its histogram is beginning to flatten, suggesting that selling momentum may be slowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Immediate support sits around <strong>0.5800<\/strong>, with a deeper floor at <strong>0.5750<\/strong>. A break below these levels could expose the April low near <strong>0.5487<\/strong>. On the upside, resistance is seen at <strong>0.5900<\/strong>, with stronger hurdles near <strong>0.6000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, the kiwi is clinging to support but remains vulnerable. The broader trend still leans bearish, and unless we see a firm recovery above <strong>0.5900<\/strong>, sellers are likely to maintain control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless Friday\u2019s <strong>US PCE<\/strong> data or RBNZ commentary surprises, <strong>NZD\/USD<\/strong> is likely to remain under pressure, with downside risk toward <strong>0.5750<\/strong> and even <strong>0.5620<\/strong> if dovish expectations escalate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Near-term rebounds are expected to be shallow unless macro tailwinds shift dramatically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Kiwi steadies near one-month lows after a sharp drop, weighed down by dovish RBNZ bets and cautious Fed signals. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16995,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,10,72],"class_list":["post-31240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-forex","tag-kiwi"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - 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