{"id":31017,"date":"2025-09-18T09:35:42","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T09:35:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=31017"},"modified":"2025-09-18T09:35:42","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T09:35:42","slug":"gold-eases-as-feds-tone-tempers-rate-cut-hopes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/gold-eases-as-feds-tone-tempers-rate-cut-hopes\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Eases as Fed\u2019s Tone Tempers Rate-Cut Hopes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/download-15-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20104\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Spot gold is trading at $3,657.21, down 0.1% after Wednesday\u2019s record high of $3,707.40.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Fed cut rates by 25 bps but struck a measured tone on future easing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>CME FedWatch prices in a 90% chance of another cut in October.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold edged lower on Thursday, extending its retreat from the previous session&#8217;s record high after the US Federal Reserve opted for a modest 25 basis-point rate cut and signalled a slow, steady approach to further easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold exports to the US from Europe\u2019s main refining hub in Switzerland plummeted in August <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Uw9mqFxCFX\">https:\/\/t.co\/Uw9mqFxCFX<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1968607060301320425?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 18, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The retreat followed a dramatic rally that pushed prices to an all-time high of $3,707.40 on Wednesday, before reversing to close 0.8% lower as the Fed\u2019s messaging cooled some of the more aggressive dovish bets in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the move as a \u201crisk-management\u201d cut in light of a softening labour market. He added that the central bank is now operating on a \u201cmeeting-by-meeting\u201d basis, providing little forward guidance and keeping expectations subdued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Fed&#39;s Powell explains how central bank moderate rates mandate works <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ymPmx5fdqt\">https:\/\/t.co\/ymPmx5fdqt<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ymPmx5fdqt\">https:\/\/t.co\/ymPmx5fdqt<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1968582050367127668?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 18, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Peter Fertig of Quantitative Commodity Research said, \u201cThere is a bit of disappointment\u2026 the market expected the opportunity cost for holding gold to decline more strongly than the Fed decided.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Dollar Rebounds, Pressuring Bullion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dollar index rose 0.2% on Thursday after plunging to a 3.5-year low the previous day, tightening financial conditions and increasing the cost of holding gold for traders outside the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although Treasury yields remained suppressed, the stronger dollar helped cap gold\u2019s upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spdrgoldshares.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">SPDR Gold Trust<\/a>, the largest gold-backed ETF globally, reported that holdings fell by 0.44% to 975.66 metric tonnes on Wednesday from 979.95 tonnes the day before\u2014indicating some <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/t3YjSs3chz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">institutional profit-taking<\/a> at elevated levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the pullback, ANZ remains bullish, stating in a note that \u201cgold is likely to outperform early in the easing cycle,\u201d with demand for haven assets expected to remain strong amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and economic fragility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold (<strong>XAU\/USD<\/strong>) is holding firm at <strong>3667.87<\/strong>, up <strong>0.23%<\/strong> on the day, extending its impressive rally from the August base. The metal remains strongly bid, trading well above its moving averages, which continue to slope upward and confirm a sustained bullish trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Momentum is reinforced by the <strong>MACD<\/strong>, which remains in positive territory with widening separation between the signal and MACD lines, highlighting that bullish momentum is still in play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/1_image-20-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31018\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the chart, gold has carved out higher lows and higher highs since the <strong>$2832.68<\/strong> low in March, with the most recent breakout above the <strong>$3600<\/strong> psychological barrier further strengthening the uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next resistance lies around <strong>$3700\u2013$3750<\/strong>, a zone that could be tested if buyers maintain control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the downside, immediate support is seen at <strong>$3600<\/strong>, followed by the stronger base at <strong>$3400<\/strong>, where gold previously consolidated before its latest surge. As long as prices hold above these levels, the broader outlook remains bullish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the short term, gold is likely to consolidate between $3,630 and $3,700 as traders await further clarity on the Fed\u2019s next steps and monitor global macro data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next key test lies in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomccalendars.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">October Fed meeting<\/a>, where the market sees a 90% probability of another 25bps cut. A dovish shift in tone or softer US data could quickly drive gold back toward its recent highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the medium term, gold remains well supported by structural drivers: falling rates, persistent geopolitical tension, and inflation uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, rapid ETF outflows or a stronger-than-expected US rebound could stall the current uptrend. Traders should monitor dollar strength and bond yields closely in the coming sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold slips after hitting a new all-time high, as the dollar rebounds and the Fed signals a cautious path forward on interest rate cuts. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":20104,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[6],"class_list":["post-31017","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-gold"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1 - 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