{"id":30688,"date":"2025-09-12T09:33:03","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T09:33:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=30688"},"modified":"2025-09-12T09:33:03","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T09:33:03","slug":"oil-retreats-despite-global-jitters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/oil-retreats-despite-global-jitters\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Retreats Despite Global Jitters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Oil8-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41764\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WTI crude fell 0.7% to $61.95, while Brent slipped 0.6% to $65.95.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>IEA now expects global supply to outpace demand growth, driven by rising OPEC+ output.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US crude stockpiles rose for a second consecutive week, signalling softening demand.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Western sanctions on Russia and Trump\u2019s tariff push add to volatility but fail to lift prices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices dipped further in early Friday trade, extending losses from the previous session as the narrative shifted sharply back toward fundamentals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At last check, Brent crude was down 0.6% to $65.95 a barrel, while WTI dropped 0.7% to $61.95. Traders are increasingly concerned that the global supply-demand balance is tilting toward a surplus, especially as demand from the US continues to slow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil output from the Bakken, the second-largest US shale field, is showing signs of a slowdown as flows on a key pipeline out of the region decline <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JLJx6gwjNA\">https:\/\/t.co\/JLJx6gwjNA<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1966232906889679073?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The International Energy Agency (IEA) this week revised its outlook, projecting <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9lVzW17Pg1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">global oil supply will rise faster than previously expected<\/a>. This comes as OPEC+ remains on track to increase output, even as signs of demand erosion begin to take hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US, the world\u2019s largest consumer, reported a <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EHW0Mrmo9c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">second straight week of crude inventory builds<\/a>. This was another red flag for those banking on a tight oil market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Demand Softens as Sanctions Wane in Impact<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite growing tension in the Middle East and new sanctions rhetoric, the geopolitical premium in oil prices appears to be fading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">President Trump\u2019s recent push for the EU to impose tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods as part of a broader pressure campaign against Russia briefly lifted prices earlier this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Trump&#39;s pressure on Europe to slap 100% tariffs on India and China raises eyebrows <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yGJMrkZSaf\">https:\/\/t.co\/yGJMrkZSaf<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/1966029524547592616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the market has since recalibrated, focusing instead on fundamentals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The lack of sustained upside following sanction headlines suggests traders view current supply dynamics as a more dominant driver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With US demand slipping and stockpiles rising, the potential for oversupply appears more pressing than the threat of disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Crude oil (<strong>WTI<\/strong>) is trading at <strong>$62.33<\/strong>, up <strong>+0.17%<\/strong> on the day, but remains under pressure after a volatile year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-16-1024x445.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30689\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The chart shows oil bouncing from its April low of $<strong>55.12, peaking at $77.90 in July before slipping back into the low $60s<\/strong>. Moving averages (5,10,30) are converging, suggesting indecision, while the <strong>MACD<\/strong> remains flat near the zero line, showing weak momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Support is seen near <strong>$59.00<\/strong>, while resistance sits around <strong>$67.00<\/strong>, followed by July\u2019s peak of <strong>$77.90<\/strong>. Until a breakout occurs, the market appears poised to consolidate within this range, with traders monitoring supply-demand catalysts and the impact of Fed rate adjustments on risk appetite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the short term, crude prices are likely to remain pressured between $61.00 and $64.00 as supply-side concerns outweigh cross-border catalysts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The IEA\u2019s updated outlook, combined with rising US inventories, will likely keep upward momentum capped even amid sanctions or Middle East flashpoints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the medium term, if demand continues to soften while OPEC+ remains on its current path, prices could edge lower toward the $59.00\u201360.00 range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A sharper drop in consumption, particularly in the U,S could trigger a more extended decline, unless offset by a production cut or unexpected supply disruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders should watch next week\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/petroleum\/supply\/weekly\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">EIA inventory data<\/a> and OPEC+ commentary closely for any shift in tone. Until then, rallies may remain shallow, and downside risk persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil edge lower amid concerns of oversupply and weakening US demand. Inventory builds and IEA projections weigh heavier than global tensions. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41764,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-30688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oil edge lower amid concerns of oversupply and weakening US demand. 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