The USDCAD has moved lower following a test of the resistance zone between 1.38917 and 1.3904. Earlier in the session, the pair reached into this key swing area, which once again acted as a ceiling. The lack of extension through resistance, along with U.S. data releases on initial jobless claims and CPI, led to a downward shift.<\/p>\n
On the downside, the price has moved towards another swing area between 1.3812 and 1.3831. This zone is reinforced by the rising 100-hour moving average currently at 1.3859, serving as a short-term pivot. <\/p>\n
For those looking for potential points of support, the 1.3812\u20131.3831 region presents an opportunity. A move upward from this area might see momentum returning to the upside with resistance potentially emerging at the 1.3890\u20131.3904 zone.<\/p>\n
If the price moves below the 100-hour moving average and the swing floor at 1.3812, it could favour sellers, suggesting a bearish trend and possibly leading to a further decline.<\/p>\n
Based on the USDCAD pair’s recent rejection of the 1.3904 resistance area, we are now focused on the critical pivot zone between 1.3812 and 1.3831. This price action was triggered by the latest U.S. economic reports showing initial jobless claims holding steady and August’s Consumer Price Index coming in slightly hot at 3.4% year-over-year. The market is now evaluating whether this support level, reinforced by the 100-hour moving average, will hold.<\/p>\n
The fundamental picture shows a divergence that favors the U.S. dollar, adding weight to this technical crossroad. Canada\u2019s most recent jobs report from last week showed an unexpected net loss of 5,000 jobs, signaling some weakness in its domestic economy. This contrasts with a U.S. economy that appears resilient enough for the Federal Reserve to maintain its data-dependent, hawkish stance.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, commodity prices are a key factor, as WTI crude oil has slipped from its recent highs above $88 to trade around $84 a barrel on global demand concerns. This softening in oil, a major Canadian export, typically acts as a headwind for the Canadian dollar. This makes the 1.3812 support level a crucial battleground for determining near-term direction.<\/p>\n
For traders anticipating a bounce from this support, we are considering buying October 2025 call options with a strike price around 1.3850. This strategy would position for a potential rebound back towards the 1.3900 resistance in the coming weeks. A successful hold of support would signal that the broader uptrend remains intact.<\/p>\n
Conversely, a sustained break below the 1.3812 floor would signal a significant bearish shift in momentum. In this scenario, we would look to purchase October 2025 put options with a strike near 1.3800. This would allow us to capitalize on a deeper correction as sellers take control.<\/p>\n
This tension between central bank policy expectations reminds us of the sharp market swings we saw back in 2023, when policy divergence was the primary driver of currency trends. How the USDCAD resolves itself around this current 1.3812 pivot point will likely set the tone for the pair through the end of the month.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USDCAD declines after resistance test; support seen near 1.3812\u20131.3831 with key 100-hour average pivot.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16967,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30617"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30617\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}