{"id":30580,"date":"2025-09-11T06:31:33","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T06:31:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=30580"},"modified":"2025-09-11T06:31:33","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T06:31:33","slug":"dollar-index-holds-ground-ahead-of-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-index-holds-ground-ahead-of-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Index Holds Ground Ahead of CPI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-14T112706.474-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18365\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Dollar Index (USDX) rose 0.15% to 97.831, marking its third straight daily gain.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>August\u2019s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.1%, after July\u2019s 0.7% rise was revised lower.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders see a 25 bps Fed rate cut next week as a done deal, with an 8.9% chance of a 50 bps cut.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The US dollar stabilised in Asia, buoyed by easing inflation data and rate-cut expectations. As of 08:47 GMT, the Dollar Index stood at 97.831, up 0.147 points or 0.15%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This marked the third consecutive session of gains, following a period of weakness earlier in the month. The catalyst came from the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pFu5zBdfPh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/a>, which reported a 0.1% decline in the PPI for final demand in August\u2014down from the 0.7% rise in July, which itself was revised lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A stalling labor market points to slower growth ahead in the US. A drop in stock prices on this reality would be a buying opportunity, @edwarnh argues, as long as a recession isn&#39;t on the horizon <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5FNRZJgyk8\">https:\/\/t.co\/5FNRZJgyk8<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1965832252513751510?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 10, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This soft inflation reading cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will pivot towards policy easing. Analysts now expect the Fed to cut rates at the 16\u201317 September meeting, with a 25 basis point move considered a near certainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders are even <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/StAIGc8dse\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">pricing in a nearly 9% chance<\/a> of a 50 basis point cut, highlighting the strength of the dovish tilt priced into markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later today, a surprise in either direction could shift sentiment rapidly. Traders are cautious, knowing that a sticky CPI could pare back expectations for deeper cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Political Disruption Weighs on Fed Independence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In parallel with the data-driven Fed narrative, political developments have added another layer of uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>President Trump\u2019s administration is attempting to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, appealing a judge\u2019s ruling that temporarily blocks her dismissal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Trump administration appeals ruling blocking removal of Fed Governor Cook <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ISAE8BhJDx\">https:\/\/t.co\/ISAE8BhJDx<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ISAE8BhJDx\">https:\/\/t.co\/ISAE8BhJDx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1965981130013704385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The White House\u2019s push to influence the Federal Reserve\u2019s composition ahead of the September meeting has raised eyebrows in policy circles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stephen Miran, a Trump nominee to the Board, is also edging closer to confirmation after a successful Senate Banking Committee vote. However, lawmakers remain <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vpII0cdEDb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">uncertain whether his appointment can be finalised<\/a> in time to impact next week\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The politicisation of the Fed\u2019s governance, even if incomplete, could rattle confidence in the institution\u2019s independence and weigh on dollar sentiment in the longer term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Overview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> is trading at <strong>97.83<\/strong>, up <strong>+0.15%<\/strong>, though it remains locked in a broad downtrend from its February 2025 high of <strong>108.39<\/strong>. After hitting a yearly low near <strong>95.97<\/strong> in July, the index has stabilised but continues to struggle to reclaim the <strong>100 level<\/strong>, suggesting persistent selling pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-14-1024x453.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30581\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">#image_title<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The moving averages (5,10,30) are flat, signalling indecision, while the <strong>MACD<\/strong> hovers near the zero line, reflecting weak momentum. Immediate support rests at <strong>96.00<\/strong>, with a break lower exposing July\u2019s low. On the upside, resistance stands at <strong>99.00<\/strong>, followed by <strong>101.00<\/strong>, levels that bulls must reclaim to shift sentiment back in their favour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the short term, the Dollar Index is likely to remain range-bound between 97.50 and 98.00 as the market absorbs inflation data and potential Fed policy signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A stronger-than-expected CPI reading could push USDX toward 98.30, but dovish rhetoric or political noise from the White House could erase those gains quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking to the medium term, the Fed\u2019s policy path and Trump\u2019s continued push to reshape the central bank\u2019s leadership will dominate price action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Fed cuts rates once or twice before year-end without damaging forward guidance, the dollar may hold near current levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, aggressive political interference or signs of deeper disinflation could send the index back toward 96.00 in Q4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USDX climbs for the third day, supported by cooling factory-gate prices and firm bets on a September Fed rate cut. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":18365,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,11],"class_list":["post-30580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-indices"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30580\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}