{"id":30366,"date":"2025-09-08T08:42:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T08:42:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=30366"},"modified":"2025-09-08T08:42:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T08:42:11","slug":"euro-holds-firm-as-dollar-softens-ecb-looms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/euro-holds-firm-as-dollar-softens-ecb-looms\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro Holds Firm as Dollar Softens, ECB Looms"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/2_download-4-1-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20766\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>EUR\/USD trades at 1.1723<\/strong>, its highest level since July<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>ECB expected to hold rates<\/strong>, weighing trade risks and inflation trends<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>U.S. CPI data may swing momentum<\/strong> mid-week<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The euro maintained strength on Monday, <strong>trading at 1.1723<\/strong>, just shy of the <strong>1.1829 July high<\/strong>, as the dollar drifted lower amid growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets are positioning cautiously ahead of a <strong>heavy macro calendar<\/strong>, including <strong>Thursday\u2019s ECB meeting<\/strong> and a critical <strong>U.S. CPI release<\/strong> that could sway September\u2019s Fed policy decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">ECB officials are likely to make an uncontentious judgment on interest rates, even while nervously watching a political crisis raging at the heart of the euro area <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/duVVFXKz1R\">https:\/\/t.co\/duVVFXKz1R<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1964426042031919303?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 6, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week\u2019s disappointing U.S. labour market data bolstered the case for a cut, with some traders speculating a <strong>larger-than-expected move<\/strong> could be on the cards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Eurozone Under Pressure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, policymakers are walking a tightrope between <strong>subdued inflation<\/strong>, <strong>cross-border trade risks<\/strong>, and a <strong>fragile growth outlook<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">France&#39;s fourth prime minister in three years, Fran\u00e7ois Bayrou, faces almost certain defeat in a confidence vote on Monday, tipping the euro zone&#39;s second-biggest economy further into political uncertainty <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AgwJfiSCTE\">https:\/\/t.co\/AgwJfiSCTE<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1964871332987904017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 8, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In France, <strong>Prime Minister Francois Bayrou faces a confidence vote<\/strong>. If Bayrou fails in the polls, it may usher in the fifth prime ministerial reshuffle under <strong>President Emmanuel Macron<\/strong> in under two years, potentially rattling markets and trader confidence in the bloc\u2019s second-largest economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EUR\/USD is trading at <strong>1.1723<\/strong>, holding steady after a long consolidation phase through late summer. The pair climbed from a February low of <strong>1.0279<\/strong> to peak at <strong>1.1829<\/strong> in July before stalling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since then, price action has remained range-bound between <strong>1.15\u20131.18<\/strong>, reflecting uncertainty in both the eurozone and US outlooks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-9-1024x453.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30367\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The moving averages (5,10,30) show a relatively flat alignment, indicating limited directional conviction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The MACD is hovering close to the zero line, with little divergence, further highlighting the sideways market. Buyers have defended 1.15 as a strong support, but rallies continue to fade below 1.18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking ahead, the euro\u2019s performance hinges on ECB policy guidance and incoming US data. A break above 1.1830 could open room toward 1.20, while slipping under 1.15 risks triggering deeper losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While upside momentum remains intact, <strong>EUR\/USD\u2019s trajectory hinges heavily on <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZxEliIfvY7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Thursday\u2019s ECB language<\/a><\/strong> and <strong>Wednesday\u2019s U.S. CPI print<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hPaaCKm9b3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">dovish Fed<\/a> and a steady ECB could set the stage for a retest of July highs. However, political risk in France may temper euro enthusiasm if instability deepens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\">start tradin<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">g<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The euro continues to hover above the $1.17 mark ahead of Thursday&#8217;s ECB meeting and key U.S. inflation data. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":20766,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[56,10],"class_list":["post-30366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-euro","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - 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