UBS maintains its 12-month forecast for gold at USD 3,700 per ounce by the end of June 2026. This prediction is based on anticipated lower US interest rates, which generally favour non-interest-bearing assets like gold.<\/p>\n
UBS also believes that ongoing geopolitical risks will support gold prices. They suggest that reduced real rates will further benefit gold in the near future.<\/p>\n
ANZ, taking a short-term perspective, advises monitoring the US jobs report. The expectation is that precious metals, including gold, will see a price rally if the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates in September. <\/p>\n
The upcoming US jobs report is identified as a critical factor that could influence whether the current rally in precious metals will continue. This reflects the market’s sensitivity to economic indicators that affect interest rate expectations.<\/p>\n
With the market now pricing in an 85% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September 17th meeting, all eyes are on this week’s jobs report. We believe a non-farm payroll number below the consensus forecast of 150,000 would solidify these expectations. This makes the upcoming data a critical short-term catalyst for gold.<\/p>\n
Derivative traders should consider positioning for increased volatility around the announcement. We are seeing elevated premiums on short-dated options, reflecting the market’s uncertainty. A simple strategy could be buying call options to speculate on a weaker-than-expected jobs number, which would likely send gold higher.<\/p>\n
This short-term focus ties directly into the longer-term bullish view for gold reaching $3,700 by mid-2026. A Fed pivot to easing, confirmed by a softening labor market, is the foundational step for that forecast. Lower real interest rates and persistent geopolitical tensions would provide the fuel for such a rally.<\/p>\n
For those with a longer horizon, we see value in looking at longer-dated call options. For instance, purchasing the June 2026 calls with a strike price around $3,000 offers a leveraged way to participate in the expected uptrend while defining risk. This aligns with the pattern we observed during the Fed’s 2019 easing cycle, which preceded a major gold rally.<\/p>\n
However, we must also prepare for a surprise. If the jobs report comes in unexpectedly strong, it could challenge the rate cut narrative and cause a sharp, albeit likely temporary, pullback in gold prices. In this scenario, holding put options could serve as an effective hedge against long-term bullish positions.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" UBS forecasts gold at $3,700 by mid-2026, citing lower rates and geopolitical risks as drivers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16980,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29975","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29975"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29975\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29975"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29975"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29975"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}