Australian building permits fell by 8.2% month-on-month in July, compared to an expected drop of 4.8% and a prior increase of 11.9%. Year-on-year figures from the previous report showed a rise of 27.4%.<\/p>\n
China’s manufacturing sector grew with an S&P Global PMI of 50.5 for August, exceeding expectations of 49.5 and maintaining the prior 49.5. This marks the fastest growth in five months.<\/p>\n
The Australian private inflation survey recorded a decrease of 0.3% month-on-month, down from a prior increase of 0.9%, and a year-on-year rate of 2.8%, slightly lower than the previous 2.9%. Meanwhile, Australian Q2 business inventories grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, below the expected 0.2%.<\/p>\n
The People’s Bank of China set the USD\/CNY reference rate at 7.1072, compared to an estimate of 7.1281. US tariffs have negatively impacted South Korean exports, with August growth slowing sharply to 1.3%.<\/p>\n
Asian shares experienced a decline amidst uncertainties over US tariff rulings. Investors are closely monitoring US jobs data for indications on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, while gold prices strengthen due to dollar weakness.<\/p>\n
We are seeing a challenging setup for the Australian dollar, with domestic data showing weakness while its key trading partner signals strength. The sharp 8.2% drop in July building permits, alongside cooling private inflation figures, suggests Australia’s internal economy is slowing down. However, the surprisingly strong China manufacturing PMI indicates robust external demand, creating a conflicting outlook.<\/p>\n
Given this backdrop, we should anticipate volatility in the Aussie dollar. The weak domestic data, especially with the Reserve Bank of Australia holding its cash rate at 3.85% since early 2025, increases the probability of a future rate cut. Therefore, derivative traders could consider buying puts on the AUD\/USD, positioning for a move lower if the RBA signals a more dovish stance.<\/p>\n
The unexpected expansion in China’s manufacturing, with the PMI hitting 50.5, should not be ignored as it breaks a recent trend of readings below the 50-point mark. This suggests that stimulus measures from Beijing are finally taking hold, which could support commodity prices. This strength creates a floor for the Aussie dollar, meaning any bearish positions should be managed carefully against this positive external factor.<\/p>\n
In the United States, the focus is squarely on upcoming jobs data for clues on Federal Reserve policy. With Fed funds futures currently pricing in over a 60% chance of a rate cut at the next meeting, a weak jobs report would likely accelerate dollar weakness. We see an opportunity in buying short-term call options on gold or puts on the US Dollar Index to prepare for this scenario.<\/p>\n
The news of the major Google and Salesforce security breach introduces a specific risk for the technology sector, which has been a market leader. After the Nasdaq 100 hit new highs during the summer of 2025, the sector is vulnerable to profit-taking on negative news. Buying protective puts on tech-heavy indices could be a wise hedge against a potential downturn in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Australian building permits drop sharply; China\u2019s manufacturing grows; investors eye US data amid global economic shifts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16964,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29903"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29903\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16964"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}