{"id":29856,"date":"2025-08-29T08:21:03","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T08:21:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=29856"},"modified":"2025-08-29T08:21:03","modified_gmt":"2025-08-29T08:21:03","slug":"oil-down-as-supply-risks-offset-demand-concerns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/oil-down-as-supply-risks-offset-demand-concerns\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Down as Supply Risks Offset Demand Concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Oil9-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41765\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WTI trades at <strong>$64.19<\/strong>, down <strong>0.6%<\/strong>, while Brent slips to <strong>$67.57<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ukraine strikes on Russian energy sites sustain risk premium, though demand worries cap gains.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices dipped on Friday but remained poised to close the week higher, with traders balancing global risks against concerns of a potential supply glut later this year. WTI crude slipped to <strong>$64.19<\/strong> a barrel and Brent eased to <strong>$67.57<\/strong>, with both benchmarks retreating after Thursday\u2019s gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil prices fall on demand concerns but head for weekly gain <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1d3vBtLsJR\">https:\/\/t.co\/1d3vBtLsJR<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1d3vBtLsJR\">https:\/\/t.co\/1d3vBtLsJR<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1961329239556333665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 29, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support for prices came from ongoing cross-border tensions. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YESr46F9ce\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Ukraine\u2019s latest attacks on Russian energy infrastructure<\/a> underscored risks of supply disruption, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said direct peace talks between Russia\u2019s President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine\u2019s Volodymyr Zelensky were unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Here\u2019s what you need to know to start your day <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/z7Pl8UcYSi\">https:\/\/t.co\/z7Pl8UcYSi<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1961303427478069610?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 29, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>ING analysts noted that \u201cthe lack of progress towards a peace deal means risks of sanctions and secondary tariffs continue to hang over the oil market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, seasonal demand weakness heading into autumn and concerns about oversupply later this year have capped upside momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts warn that rising U.S. production and <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IG68A9iaom\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">sluggish refinery throughput<\/a> could tilt balances back toward surplus, limiting the market\u2019s ability to sustain gains despite higher cross-border premiums.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil (CL-OIL) has had a volatile year, with price dropping to a low of $55.11 in April before rallying to $77.90 in July. Since then, it has retreated and is now consolidating around $64.30.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The short-term moving averages (5, 10) are starting to flatten and converge with the 30-day MA, suggesting reduced downward momentum after weeks of pressure. The MACD is still below the zero line but is beginning to curl upwards, pointing to early signs of stabilisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-23-1024x448.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29857\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In the near term, resistance sits at $66\u201367, with stronger resistance near $70. On the downside, immediate support is at $60, while $55 remains the critical long-term floor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A break above $67 would confirm bullish momentum and could lead to another attempt at the $72\u201375 region, while failure to hold $60 risks a retest of April\u2019s low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, oil appears to be forming a base, but traders should watch for catalysts such as OPEC+ announcements, US inventory data, and global demand signals to determine the next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If global risks intensify, crude could retest the <strong>$67.00\u2013$70.00<\/strong> zone. However, should demand data soften further or supply indicators point to a surplus, prices risk slipping back toward <strong>$61.00<\/strong> in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WTI eases to $64.19 but remains set for a weekly rise as Russian supply risks counter softer demand outlooks. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41765,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-29856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29856\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41765"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}