{"id":29778,"date":"2025-08-28T09:51:21","date_gmt":"2025-08-28T09:51:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=29778"},"modified":"2025-08-28T09:51:21","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T09:51:21","slug":"euro-holds-against-french-political-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/euro-holds-against-french-political-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro Holds Against French Political Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-21T183310.720-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18936\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Euro trades at <strong>1.1642<\/strong>, flat on the day after touching <strong>1.1573<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>French PM Bayrou faces a confidence vote, widening spreads with German bunds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The euro remained under pressure on Thursday as French political instability unsettled investors, though analysts suggest losses could be contained in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The risk of another failed government in France is already priced in by markets and won\u2019t be enough to derail the European stock rally, top Wall Street strategists say <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Kjavwet7vU\">https:\/\/t.co\/Kjavwet7vU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1960968132576563685?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 28, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prime Minister Francois Bayrou <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GuI9tecFFq\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">faces the prospect of being ousted<\/a> next month after calling a surprise vote of confidence on his deficit-reduction plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The move has widened spreads between French and German government bonds, adding to political risk premium in the single currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The euro briefly touched <strong>1.1573<\/strong>, its lowest in three weeks, before stabilising around <strong>1.1642<\/strong>. Broader dollar positioning remains the key driver, with markets focused on U.S. economic data and next month\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9BuwxHOYVr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Federal Reserve meeting<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EUR\/USD has been in a broad uptrend since February\u2019s low at 1.0210, climbing steadily to a July peak near 1.1830 before easing into consolidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At present, the pair trades around 1.1641, holding above the 1.1500 support area. Moving averages (5, 10, 30) remain aligned in a generally supportive structure, though they have flattened out, suggesting momentum has cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-20-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29779\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The MACD is hovering close to the zero line, reflecting the lack of clear directional strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the near term, resistance sits around 1.1700\u20131.1830, which must be cleared for the uptrend to resume. On the downside, a break below 1.1500 would weaken the structure and expose 1.1350 as the next support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For now, the euro appears to be range-bound, with traders watching for US economic data and ECB policy cues to drive the next decisive move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cautious Forecast<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If French political risks intensify and the dollar remains firm, EUR\/USD could retest <strong>1.1600<\/strong> or slip toward <strong>1.1500<\/strong>. However, stabilisation in bond spreads and a softer U.S. data print could help the euro rebound toward <strong>1.1750<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/USD steadies after hitting a three-week low, with dollar strength still seen as the dominant driver. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":18936,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[56,10],"class_list":["post-29778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-euro","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - 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08:36:08","breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":false,"open_ai":null,"ai":null,"created":"2026-03-02 11:30:50","updated":"2026-06-26 08:36:08"},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/category\/analysis\/\" title=\"Today&apos;s Analysis\">Today's Analysis<\/a>\n<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\tEuro Holds Against French Political Risks\n<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia"},{"label":"Today's Analysis","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/category\/analysis\/"},{"label":"Euro Holds Against French Political 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