{"id":29630,"date":"2025-10-01T05:22:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T05:22:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=29630"},"modified":"2025-10-01T05:22:21","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T05:22:21","slug":"kiwi-under-pressure-as-markets-anticipate-rbnz-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/kiwi-under-pressure-as-markets-anticipate-rbnz-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Kiwi Under Pressure As Markets Anticipate RBNZ Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The New Zealand dollar lingered around $0.579 on Wednesday, holding steady after modest gains, as the greenback softened on concerns that a potential US government shutdown could be imminent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The prospect of Washington grinding to a halt is stoking nerves among traders, who worry that vital data, not least September\u2019s non-farm payrolls, could be postponed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any such delay would muddy the waters for the Federal Reserve, complicating its guidance ahead of the late-October policy meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although a dip in the US dollar has provided the kiwi with a brief respite, the currency remains under strain, still trading close to last week\u2019s six-month low of $0.578.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Domestic policy expectations are adding to the drag. Markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at its meeting next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">New Zealand\u2019s central bank has learned lessons from the post-pandemic bout of fast inflation and is now better placed to respond to future shocks, chief economist Paul Conway said <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wAejIQWBTj\">https:\/\/t.co\/wAejIQWBTj<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1972452856549576936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 29, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures pricing also reflects around a one-in-three chance of a larger 50-basis-point move, highlighting persistent doubts over the resilience of the domestic economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Domestic Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest ANZ Bank business outlook survey painted a mixed picture. While headline confidence held firm in September, with a net 50% of firms anticipating better conditions, the optimism stands at odds with the lacklustre pace of underlying growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This disconnect leaves the RBNZ facing growing pressure to respond more forcefully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Zealand dollar (NZDUSD) continues to struggle, trading at\u00a00.57897, down\u00a00.06%, with price action leaning bearish as the pair slips further below the\u00a00.58 handle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Kiwi is being weighed down by persistent USD resilience and weaker demand for risk assets, while domestic economic headwinds and the RBNZ\u2019s cautious stance limit upside potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a technical perspective, NZDUSD has clearly broken below its\u00a030-day moving average, with the\u00a05- and 10-day averages\u00a0trending lower, signalling strong downward momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/10\/nzdusd-1-oct.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29631\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/10\/nzdusd-1-oct.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/10\/nzdusd-1-oct-300x130.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/10\/nzdusd-1-oct-500x217.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/10\/nzdusd-1-oct-400x174.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/10\/nzdusd-1-oct-350x152.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/10\/nzdusd-1-oct-200x87.jpeg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The last major swing high was at\u00a00.6120\u00a0in July, and since then the pair has been in a steady decline. Immediate support sits at\u00a00.5750, with further downside risk extending toward the\u00a0April low near 0.5487\u00a0if bearish pressure persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Momentum indicators confirm the bearish trend. The\u00a0MACD\u00a0is deeply in negative territory, with the MACD line staying below the signal line and widening, showing accelerating downside momentum. The histogram also supports this bias with persistent red bars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Cautious Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short term, the kiwi is likely to remain on the back foot unless broader risk sentiment improves or US yields start to ease. A sustained move back above 0.5850 would be required to temper the downside pressure, but for now, any rallies are expected to meet resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account <\/a><\/strong>and<strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarketsmy.com\/login\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading today.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The New Zealand dollar lingered around $0.579 on Wednesday, holding steady after modest gains, as the greenback softened on concerns that a potential US government shutdown could be imminent. The prospect of Washington grinding to a halt is stoking nerves among traders, who worry that vital data, not least September\u2019s non-farm payrolls, could be postponed. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/kiwi-under-pressure-as-markets-anticipate-rbnz-cut\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":29631,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29630"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29630\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}