Today’s foreign exchange option expiry is noteworthy for EUR\/USD at the 1.1700 mark. Offers since last week have positioned at this level, restricting gains following the US CPI report.<\/p>\n
These expiries might limit price movements until US trading begins. The dollar is weak this week, but traders have anticipated a September rate cut by the Fed.<\/p>\n
We see a significant options expiry for EUR\/USD today at the 1.1700 level. This mark has acted as a ceiling for the pair, notably capping gains after yesterday’s US inflation report. These expiries are likely to pin the price down, at least through the morning session.<\/p>\n
The broader context shows the US dollar is in a vulnerable position. Yesterday’s July 2025 Consumer Price Index report showed core inflation easing to 2.8% year-over-year, its lowest reading since early 2024. This trend of softening price pressures adds to the dollar’s defensive tone.<\/p>\n
Because of this, derivative markets have almost entirely priced in a Federal Reserve rate cut for the upcoming September meeting. Current data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows a greater than 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction. This expectation is the main force weighing on the greenback.<\/p>\n
This policy shift is a major change from the aggressive rate-hiking cycle we saw through 2023 and the high plateau that held for much of 2024. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls data from early August, which missed expectations by adding only 155,000 jobs, has cemented this dovish outlook. We are clearly in a different economic phase now.<\/p>\n
In the immediate term, traders might consider selling short-dated call options with a 1.1700 strike price to take advantage of this barrier. This strategy profits from the price failing to break higher before the options expire. It is a way to trade the expected range-bound action.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead a few weeks, the underlying dollar weakness suggests positioning for an eventual breakout higher in EUR\/USD. Buying call options with September or October expiries at strikes like 1.1750 or 1.1800 could capture potential upside. This would be a bet that the pair will rally once the Fed officially signals its easing cycle has begun.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD faces expiry pressure at 1.1700, limiting moves as traders eye potential Fed rate cut.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16967,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28929","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28929"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28929\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28929"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28929"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28929"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}