The USDJPY experienced a bullish breakout, surpassing the 200-day moving average and 50% midpoint of the 2025 trading range. This was contradicted last week when a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report caused a reversal and a sharp decline in the pair’s value.<\/p>\n
On the 4-hour chart, USDJPY fell below the 100-bar moving average at 148.00, shifting the short-term technical bias to sellers. The hourly chart further confirms the bearish sentiment, with sellers maintaining control below the 200-hour moving average at 148.15.<\/p>\n
Immediate support is found at the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 146.566. Breaching the session low of 146.90 could enhance bearish momentum towards a target zone between 145.91 and 146.288. Key support stretches further down to the 100-day moving average at 145.698.<\/p>\n
The persistent resistance failures and layered support levels provide critical markers for assessing shifts in market momentum. Traders must observe these technical indicators to understand market movements in the upcoming sessions.<\/p>\n
From our perspective on August 4, 2025, the technical picture for USD\/JPY shows sellers are firmly in charge. The attempted rally last week failed right after the weak U.S. jobs report, pushing the price back below key moving averages. This failed breakout suggests that the path of least resistance is now to the downside.<\/p>\n
The latest U.S. jobs data from last Friday, August 1, 2025, is the main driver behind this shift. The economy added only 110,000 jobs in July, falling far short of the 180,000 that was expected, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%. This data dampens expectations for any further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year, weighing heavily on the US dollar.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, sentiment around the yen is strengthening. We are hearing more talk from Bank of Japan officials about reviewing their policy, with many now expecting another small rate hike before the end of 2025. This divergence in central bank outlooks provides a strong fundamental reason for USD\/JPY to continue its decline.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this environment makes buying put options an attractive strategy. With the price currently below 147.00, traders could look at puts with strike prices near the next support zones, such as 146.50 or the 146.00 level. This allows for participation in further downside while strictly defining risk to the premium paid for the option.<\/p>\n
To manage costs, a bear put spread could be considered, which involves buying a put option and simultaneously selling another put with a lower strike price. Given the recent jump in implied volatility following the jobs report surprise, selling that lower-strike put can help finance the position. This is a strategy for a measured downward move toward the 100-day moving average around 145.70.<\/p>\n
We must remember the sharp interventions by Japanese authorities back in 2022 and 2024 when the pair was trading above 155. While we are not at those levels, the memory of that swift action may prevent any aggressive rallies, giving traders more confidence to hold short-biased positions. The risk of intervention from the Ministry of Finance now seems very low, removing a major hurdle for yen strength.<\/p>\n
The critical levels to watch are the moving averages at 148.00 and 148.15. As long as the price stays below this resistance area, the bearish outlook holds and selling on any minor rallies is the favored approach. A sustained move back above 148.15 would signal that the downward momentum has faded, forcing a reassessment of short positions.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USDJPY reverses after bullish breakout; key moving averages signal bearish shift and potential downside support targets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17047,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28137","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28137"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28137\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}