USDJPY is experiencing an upward trend amidst trade tensions, following tariffs imposed by President Trump on Japanese goods. These include a 25% tariff on all imports from Japan effective from August 1 and tariffs on automobiles and auto parts from March 2025. There are also 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports starting June 2025.<\/p>\n
Technical analysis shows a bullish momentum for USDJPY, with the price moving above the 38.2% retracement from the 2025 high to low, at 147.135. On the hourly chart, the price found support at this retracement level, indicating buyer activity at key technical levels. Last week, the price held near the rising 100-hour moving average during two dips. Buyers intervened, preventing further decline and supporting the moving average as a pivotal support level.<\/p>\n
Maintaining positions above these technical markers, such as moving averages and retracement levels, supports the bullish outlook. These positions act as decision points, where buyers usually reengage to support the continued upward trend.<\/p>\n
In short, what’s going on here is that the yen is depreciating against the dollar. Traders are pricing in higher expectations of tariff-driven inflationary risks in Japan, alongside general dollar strength. The recent U.S. policy shift\u2014specifically one that directly targets Japanese exports\u2014has created pressure on the yen and reinforced demand for the greenback.<\/p>\n
What we’ve seen on the charts reflects that sentiment. The move above the 38.2% retracement level offers confirmation that there is clear buying conviction at that region. Notably, the consistency of support around the 100-hour average\u2014despite minor sell-offs\u2014indicates these dips are being absorbed by fresh demand. In other words, the dips haven’t altered the underlying direction. This isn’t an area that traders are hesitant around; quite the opposite, it’s where engagement increases.<\/p>\n
Now, if we consider how we act on this, there are a few practical measures. We can anticipate that as long as support continues to hold at these retracement levels and moving averages, opportunity lies to the upside. We can treat these levels almost like turning points\u2014areas where there’s been enough interest to halt declines in the past. A failure of buyers to show up at those same spots in the coming days would be one of the few clear warnings that the structure has changed.<\/p>\n
As a group, what matters most isn\u2019t simply following the bigger move. It\u2019s having a plan for what to do if momentum falters. If we begin to see buyers step back\u2014say, if price falls below the 100-hour average with no follow-up recovery\u2014that would shift our positioning bias. That’s something to prepare for actively rather than watch passively. For now, however, the way price has respected those technical points offers a fairly defined framework for action.<\/p>\n
Shifting gears slightly, it\u2019s also worth remembering that when tariffs are rolled out sporadically over many months, markets don\u2019t always price them all in at once. The staggered nature of what\u2019s been announced\u2014tariffs beginning in August, and more in March and June of next year\u2014means the reaction could stretch beyond just a knee-jerk move. This extended timeline allows for repricing along with each new piece of clarity.<\/p>\n
Watching the dollar side of the pair is just as important. If there are shifts in U.S. interest rate expectations in response to these policies\u2014particularly if economic data justifies fewer or delayed cuts\u2014that would amplify any upside pressure. Recent behaviour suggests that macro developments are not being ignored, but layered in with the technicals. That dual-input approach\u2014macro and technical\u2014seems to deliver the clearest signals to act on.<\/p>\n
From where we stand, the best way forward is to continue treating key levels as binary guides\u2014where price either holds or it doesn\u2019t. Whether we decide to stay leveraged or scale back exposure rests on how these levels behave over the next week or so. The pair hasn’t moved in isolation either. Correlated moves in other yen pairs suggest broader trends are aligning, not diverging.<\/p>\n
So as we track each hourly candle and daily close, the map becomes quite traceable. Maintain only as long as the structure supports. React quickly when it doesn’t. That\u2019s the objective path from here.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USDJPY trends upward amid tariffs; bullish technical signals from key retracement levels and moving average support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26422","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26422"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26422\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}