{"id":26132,"date":"2025-07-10T01:50:46","date_gmt":"2025-07-10T01:50:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=26132"},"modified":"2025-07-10T01:50:46","modified_gmt":"2025-07-10T01:50:46","slug":"nikkei-falls-as-u-s-japan-trade-talks-stall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/nikkei-falls-as-u-s-japan-trade-talks-stall\/","title":{"rendered":"Nikkei Falls as U.S.\u2013Japan Trade Talks Stall"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx-86-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20961\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nikkei 225 fell 0.4% to below 39,700 while Topix declined 0.6% to 2,810<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>New 25% U.S. tariff on Japanese goods could cut Japan\u2019s GDP by 0.8% in 2025<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Nikkei 225<\/strong> slipped <strong>0.4%<\/strong>, closing at <strong>39,581.65<\/strong>, with a session low of <strong>39,544.65<\/strong>. The broader <strong>Topix index<\/strong> followed suit, losing <strong>0.6% to 2,810<\/strong>, as markets digested the fallout from President Trump\u2019s 25% tariff announcement on Japanese imports<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Japan\u2019s automakers slashed the price of products exported to the US at a record pace <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ORwgwOMVPB\">https:\/\/t.co\/ORwgwOMVPB<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1943118143976575006?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 10, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This marked a stark reversal from Wednesday\u2019s recovery, with <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Xkn2NsFjq9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">traders rattled by the firm August 1 deadline<\/a> and <strong>no possibility of an extension<\/strong>. The high of <strong>39,951.65<\/strong> on Thursday failed to hold, as momentum crumbled sharply in the late Tokyo session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Tariffs Threaten Japan\u2019s Growth Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The newly announced duties are expected to <strong>shave 0.8% off Japan\u2019s GDP in 2025<\/strong>, according to a local economic think tank. Cumulatively, this could translate to a <strong>1.9% drag by 2029<\/strong>\u2014a serious blow to an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Japan\u2019s Prime Minister <strong>Shigeru Ishiba<\/strong> described the tariff escalation as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/07\/08\/trump-tariff-letters-japan-southkorea-fresh-deadline.html\">\u201ctruly re<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/07\/08\/trump-tariff-letters-japan-southkorea-fresh-deadline.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">g<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/07\/08\/trump-tariff-letters-japan-southkorea-fresh-deadline.html\">rettable,\u201d<\/a> though he reaffirmed Tokyo\u2019s <strong>commitment to continued dialogue<\/strong>. Despite that, traders are beginning to price in the damage of a prolonged trade disruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Nikkei 225 fell sharply in the latest session, breaking below multiple intraday support zones and closing at <strong>39,581.65<\/strong>, marking a <strong>0.76% drop<\/strong>. After hitting resistance at <strong>40,027.65<\/strong>, price action has been dominated by lower highs and lower lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-7.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-26134\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: Nikkei 225 tumbles below 39,600 as risk-off mood takes hold, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current structure shows strong bearish momentum, with the MACD histogram deep in negative territory and the signal line crossover widening. The 5- and 10-period MAs are both sharply sloped downwards, while the 30-MA remains above price, reinforcing the downside bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A key short-term support now lies at <strong>39,540\u201339,580<\/strong>, the current area of consolidation and former bounce zone. A confirmed break below <strong>39,540<\/strong> could accelerate declines toward <strong>39,300<\/strong>, with further downside risk toward <strong>39,000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any rebound attempt must first overcome resistance at <strong>39,800<\/strong>, where the 10\u2011 and 30\u2011MA cluster offers a likely ceiling. A breakout back above <strong>39,950<\/strong> would be needed to shift the bias back to neutral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Nikkei 225 drops as fresh U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods loom. A 0.8% GDP hit forecast for Japan in 2025 raises trader concerns amid stalled negotiations. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":20961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[11,30],"class_list":["post-26132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-indices","tag-nikkei"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26132"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26132\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}