{"id":26084,"date":"2025-07-09T09:52:35","date_gmt":"2025-07-09T09:52:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=26084"},"modified":"2025-07-09T09:52:35","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T09:52:35","slug":"crude-oil-edges-higher-as-tariff-tensions-simmer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/crude-oil-edges-higher-as-tariff-tensions-simmer\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Oil Edges Higher as Tariff Tensions Simmer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/Oil4-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41759\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent and WTI both rose 0.5% to $70.49 and $68.68 respectively, despite rising U.S. crude stockpiles<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>API data showed U.S. inventories surged by 1.7M barrels\u2014the biggest increase since January<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil prices continued their cautious climb, with <strong>WTI futures (CL-OIL)<\/strong> closing at <strong>$68.653<\/strong>, up from an intraday low of <strong>$67.768<\/strong>. The day\u2019s high marked <strong>$68.893<\/strong>, flirting with a key resistance level seen just below the $69 handle<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The US sees domestic crude output growth slowing more than expected this year as choppy oil prices limit drilling activity <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rioSzQqbb8\">https:\/\/t.co\/rioSzQqbb8<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1942624769788006589?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 8, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Brent crude<\/strong> also rose <strong>0.5% to $70.49<\/strong>, buoyed by technical recovery momentum. Traders, however, remain wary of escalating global trade uncertainty, especially following <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DM34ROFafb\">Trump\u2019s 50% tariff announcement on copper<\/a><\/strong> and upcoming deadlines for broader trade negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Inventory Spike Casts a Shadow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Adding pressure to the bullish sentiment, the <strong>American Petroleum Institute (API)<\/strong> reported a <strong>1.7 million-barrel build<\/strong> in U.S. crude inventories last week. If confirmed by the <strong>EIA\u2019s report later today<\/strong>, it would mark the <strong>largest inventory gain since January<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such a rise suggests <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nkws7WAF5X\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">softening domestic demand or persistent supply resilience<\/a>, both of which could dampen the case for sustained upward momentum in oil prices. The <strong>$68.90\u2013$69.00<\/strong> zone now acts as a psychological barrier, with further upside likely requiring either a geopolitical disruption or a draw in inventories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">The Elephant in the Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>President Trump\u2019s mixed messaging continues to blur the oil demand outlook. While he has hardened his stance on the <strong>August 1 trade deal deadline<\/strong>, analysts at IG suggest the markets are beginning to <strong>adapt to Trump\u2019s policy manoeuvres<\/strong>, treating them as bargaining tools rather than fixed triggers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, the broader fear remains: if tariffs reduce global industrial output and limit transportation volumes, <strong>oil demand could shrink<\/strong> in the quarters ahead. This is especially critical with summer driving season nearing its peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices have pulled back after reaching an intraday high near <strong>$68.90\u2013$69.00<\/strong>, with the 5, 10, and 30\u2011period moving averages now converging around <strong>$68.60<\/strong>, signaling a potential short-term equilibrium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-6.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-26085\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: Oil consolidates near $68.60, holding key support at $66.95, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD histogram has turned slightly bullish, but the MACD line remains just above the signal, suggesting weak upward momentum rather than a strong reversal. Key support lies at the recent low near <strong>$66.95<\/strong>, a level reinforced by both the 30\u2011MA and prior consolidation zone. If this level holds, a retest of the $69.00\u2013$69.20 resistance range is likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A clean break above <strong>$69.00<\/strong> could open the door to a move toward the next resistance around <strong>$69.50\u2013$69.80<\/strong>, coinciding with last week&#8217;s highs. Conversely, a drop below <strong>$66.95<\/strong> would risk deeper retracement toward <strong>$66.00<\/strong> or even challenge the pre\u2011June lows near <strong>$65.00<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices climb as Brent hovers near $70, but rising U.S. inventories and Trump\u2019s trade threats cloud demand outlook. Technical signals show resistance ahead. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41759,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-26084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26084"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26084\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41759"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}