{"id":25211,"date":"2025-09-18T04:16:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T04:16:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=25211"},"modified":"2025-09-18T04:16:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T04:16:10","slug":"aussie-dollar-eases-as-labour-market-weakens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/aussie-dollar-eases-as-labour-market-weakens\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie Dollar Eases As Labour Market Weakens"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Australian dollar slipped on Thursday, trading just under 0.665 after a softer-than-expected employment report raised doubts about the labour market\u2019s durability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australian unemployment held steady last month even as the economy shed jobs with fewer people looking for work, signaling the labor market remains tight and reinforcing the Reserve Bank\u2019s cautious approach to policy easing <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/loOarA9LvY\">https:\/\/t.co\/loOarA9LvY<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1968493954950672878?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 18, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Total employment contracted by 5,400 in August, a stark miss compared with forecasts for a 21,500 increase. The decline came almost entirely from full-time jobs, which dropped by 40,900, a troubling sign that underlying momentum may be fading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the jobless rate held steady at 4.2%, the participation rate edged down to 66.8%, hinting at a small retreat in the number of people actively seeking work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taken together, the figures suggest the labour market is gradually losing momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the weaker print, markets still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold steady in September, with only a 20% probability of a rate cut factored in. That likelihood, however, jumps to 70% for November, as inflation remains above target and policymakers continue to strike a guardedly hawkish tone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Fed\u2019s Measured Approach Adds To Global Pressures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Across the Pacific, the Federal Reserve delivered the widely anticipated 25-basis-point cut but flagged only two further reductions this year and a single move in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chair Jerome Powell underscored a &#8216;risk management&#8217; stance, choosing not to rush into deeper easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the Australian dollar, the Fed\u2019s cautious approach implies global yield spreads may narrow more slowly than markets had projected. That diminishes one potential source of support for the Aussie, particularly if the RBA cuts rates before the Fed acts again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Technical Overview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar (AUD\/USD) is trading at\u00a00.66498, showing a minor dip of\u00a00.03%, but overall momentum remains bullish. Since rebounding from the April low of\u00a00.59214, the pair has been in a steady uptrend, supported by higher lows and consistent buying pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent breakout above the\u00a00.6600\u00a0handle has pushed the currency towards its next resistance near\u00a00.6650\u20130.6700.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"337\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/09\/audusd-18-sept.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25212\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/09\/audusd-18-sept.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/09\/audusd-18-sept-300x132.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/09\/audusd-18-sept-500x219.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/09\/audusd-18-sept-400x176.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/09\/audusd-18-sept-350x154.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/09\/audusd-18-sept-200x88.jpeg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>From a technical standpoint, price action is well-supported by the moving averages, which continue to slope upward. The\u00a0MACD\u00a0remains in bullish territory, with the histogram showing rising momentum, suggesting buyers are still in control despite today\u2019s slight pullback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, immediate resistance is seen at\u00a00.6700, and a decisive break above this level could extend gains towards\u00a00.6800.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the downside, initial support lies at\u00a00.6500, with stronger protection around\u00a00.6400. Unless the pair falls back below these zones, the broader outlook remains constructive for further upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook: Cautious But Constructive<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the near term, AUD\/USD is likely to consolidate between 0.6600 and 0.6660 while traders weigh the policy outlook for both the RBA and the Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A sustained push through 0.6655 could pave the way towards 0.6700, though this may require either softer US economic data or a more dovish tilt from Australian policymakers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking further out, prospects lean towards modest upside, particularly if the RBA delays easing and global risk sentiment remains steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, any renewed weakness in labour market data or a slump in commodity prices could quickly change the picture, dragging the Aussie back below 0.6550.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong> and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarketsmy.com\/login\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading now.<\/a><\/strong><br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Australian dollar slipped on Thursday, trading just under 0.665 after a softer-than-expected employment report raised doubts about the labour market\u2019s durability. Total employment contracted by 5,400 in August, a stark miss compared with forecasts for a 21,500 increase. The decline came almost entirely from full-time jobs, which dropped by 40,900, a troubling sign that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/aussie-dollar-eases-as-labour-market-weakens\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":25212,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25211"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25211\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25212"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}