{"id":24293,"date":"2025-06-12T04:15:07","date_gmt":"2025-06-12T04:15:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=24293"},"modified":"2025-06-12T04:15:07","modified_gmt":"2025-06-12T04:15:07","slug":"aud-slips-as-tariff-tensions-deepen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/aud-slips-as-tariff-tensions-deepen\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD Slips as Tariff Tensions Deepen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/aussie3-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16961\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AUD\/USD dips below $0.649 as Trump reignites global tariff risk<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets price in 80% chance of RBA rate cut to 3.60% in July<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar continued its downward trajectory on Thursday, falling past the $0.649 mark amid rising global risk aversion and growing speculation of an imminent rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The currency dropped to $0.64838 at its intraday low before recovering slightly to trade near $0.65052 at the time of writing. Wednesday\u2019s brief spike to $0.65459 has now been fully unwound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Aussie debt allure, a cross-shareholding\u2019s demise, and overblown worries over North West Shelf gas. Read today&#39;s Australia Briefing by <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AngusWhitley1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@AngusWhitley1<\/a> for your daily dose of the best of Bloomberg from Down Under and around the world. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DSXzLgze88\">https:\/\/t.co\/DSXzLgze88<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1929673487741800816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 2, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Trader sentiment turned cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump escalated his protectionist rhetoric, announcing that <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yE8xAZp3lx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">official tariff letters would soon be sent<\/a> to major trade partners. These letters, expected in the coming one to two weeks, will outline unilateral tariffs aimed at forcing new trade negotiations. Markets responded with a shift away from risk assets, <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/p4cJ4QVgcL\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">sending the Aussie dollar lower<\/a> along with equities and commodities linked to global trade flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The renewed tariff threat comes at a time when the Australian economy is already grappling with a soft domestic outlook. Markets are now pricing in an 80% <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-06-11\/rbnz-policymaker-s-closed-door-talk-raises-transparency-concerns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">probability that the RBA will cut its benchmark interest<\/a> rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% at the upcoming July 8 policy meeting. Expectations have also firmed for further easing, with rates forecast to decline to 3.10% by the end of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Westpac\u2019s Chief Economist <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westpaciq.com.au\/authors\/luci-ellis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Luci Ellis<\/a> anticipates a slightly more measured pace, expecting the RBA to pause in July before implementing rate cuts in August and November. Ellis also projects two additional cuts in February and May next year, potentially bringing the cash rate down to 2.85%. She noted that the RBA could act earlier if inflation moderates more quickly or if labour market conditions deteriorate faster than forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The AUDUSD pair showed a firm recovery after briefly dipping to 0.64838, where it found strong support. A swift bullish reversal followed, confirmed by a MACD crossover and a surge in histogram momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/1_image-13-1024x440.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24294\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: AUDUSD bounces off 0.6483 support with MACD crossover, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Price reclaimed the 0.6500 zone with conviction, breaking above short-term moving averages and suggesting renewed buying pressure. This rebound signals a potential continuation higher if intraday resistance near 0.6510 is cleared, while the 0.6480\u20130.6490 area now acts as a near-term demand zone. Momentum remains constructive as long as price stays above the 30-period moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With U.S. inflation data and fresh trade headlines still ahead, the Aussie is likely to remain volatile. If Trump formalises the tariff letters or if the RBA signals a dovish bias next week, downward pressure on AUD could intensify. Traders will be watching for further macro signals and any revisions to domestic data that could accelerate the rate-cut timetable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The AUD declined sharply on Thursday as renewed trade tensions and rising expectations of RBA rate cuts pressured the currency lower. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[70,10],"class_list":["post-24293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-aussie","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24293","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24293"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24293\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}