{"id":23996,"date":"2025-06-05T06:31:26","date_gmt":"2025-06-05T06:31:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23996"},"modified":"2025-06-05T06:31:26","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T06:31:26","slug":"aussie-holds-firm-despite-data-drag","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/aussie-holds-firm-despite-data-drag\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie Holds Firm Despite Data Drag"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/aussie2-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16960\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AUD\/USD trades near <strong>0.6491<\/strong>, just shy of resistance at <strong>0.6510<\/strong> after overnight rise of 0.5%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weak Australian consumption data adds pressure on the RBA, while soft U.S. prints drive Treasury rally and dollar retreat.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar remained resilient on Thursday, trading near <strong>$0.6491<\/strong>, bolstered more by U.S. dollar weakness than domestic strength. Despite weak macro prints out of Australia, the Aussie held its ground as risk sentiment swung in its favour, buoyed by a softening greenback in response to deepening concerns around tariff-induced economic deceleration in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Asian stocks inch higher, Aussie dips as RBA cuts rates <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/p4cJ4QVgcL\">https:\/\/t.co\/p4cJ4QVgcL<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/p4cJ4QVgcL\">https:\/\/t.co\/p4cJ4QVgcL<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1924719285265436983?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 20, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Aussie rose <strong>0.5% overnight<\/strong>, largely mirroring the broader U.S. dollar selloff. Data out of the U.S. showed that the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Z7oiA3Y09E\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">services sector<\/a> contracted for the first time in nearly a year<\/strong>, while <strong>ADP private payrolls rose by only 152,000<\/strong>, well below the 173,000 consensus. Treasury yields dropped in response, pushing the dollar index to six-week lows and reigniting <strong>speculation of a Fed rate cut as soon as September<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This macro backdrop pushed traders out of the dollar and into higher-yielding risk currencies, lending broad support to the AUD despite local economic underperformance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Australian Macro Picture Still Fragile<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On the domestic front, fundamentals offer little reason for bullish enthusiasm. Wednesday\u2019s <strong>GDP data came in weaker than expected<\/strong>, and Thursday\u2019s <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/finance\/monthly-household-spending-indicator\/latest-release\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Household Spending Index<\/a><\/strong> showed only marginal growth for April. This, combined with earlier <strong>tepid retail sales<\/strong> and a soft <strong>trade surplus<\/strong> (driven by a fall in gold exports), painted a lacklustre picture for Q2 economic momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are now <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SBGpHrYq8x\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">pricing in a rate cut from the RBA as early as July<\/a><\/strong>, with the expected cycle bottoming at <strong>2.85%<\/strong> by early 2026. Although Australia\u2019s <strong>exports to China remain stable<\/strong>, they are not enough to offset the broader slowdown in household consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The momentum of the HSI in recent months continues to fade,&#8221; noted UBS economist George Tharenou, who added that \u201crisks of a July cut have increased materially.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar climbed steadily off the 0.6445 low, peaking at 0.6509 before consolidating into a tighter range. Momentum peaked around the Asia-London crossover, supported by a bullish MACD crossover and consistent higher lows. However, since tagging resistance near 0.6510, price has flattened just below the 30-period MA and is now moving sideways, suggesting indecision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-4-1024x445.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23997\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: AUD\/USD stalls near 0.6510 after slow grind higher; momentum fades as price coils under resistance, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>MACD momentum has weakened, with the histogram near neutral and signal lines narrowing. Short-term moving averages (5 and 10) are clustering with price, pointing to a possible breakout\u2014or a fade\u2014depending on incoming catalysts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Immediate resistance lies at 0.6509, with key support at 0.6480. A break above 0.6510 opens the path toward 0.6530, while a dip below 0.6480 may signal a return to 0.6460.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders will now look to Friday\u2019s <strong>U.S. nonfarm payrolls<\/strong> for the next major catalyst. Any downside surprise may further depress the dollar and give the Aussie the boost needed to test the upper end of its range near <strong>0.6537<\/strong>. Until then, expect range-bound consolidation with limited upside momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD steadies near 0.649 as greenback softens; RBA easing bets build ahead of July. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16960,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[70,10],"class_list":["post-23996","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-aussie","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23996","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23996"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23996\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23996"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23996"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23996"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}